I believe we can all finally stop everything for a moment and let out a collective sigh of relief.
*SIGH*It is finally over. I think there are a thousand things we could say about this trade that sends
Jay Cutler (Tenacious D) from
Denver to Chicago for several valuable draft picks. I'm less inclined to try to figure out who won in the transaction, because both teams gained something and both lost something. Only time will tell who made the right decision. But be certain of this: one of these teams just made a huge mistake.
I am just glad it's over.
So give credit to the
Denver Broncos. The longer it took for them to get rid of Cutler, the lower the asking price would have become. Not to mention, the unrest and division within the locker room would have grown too great to overcome. Give credit to
Chicago as well. The Bears haven't had a pro-bowl QB under center since
Jim McMahon in 1985. Now, they've got Cutler, a pro-bowler who hasn't even reached his full potential yet.
Now let's be realistic. This blog might be dedicated to the
LOTC, but it would be foolish to not consider the impact that this trade has on the NFL first.
The Broncos gave up a stud franchise quarterback. No team can do that without getting set back at least a year or two. But they did get
Kyle Orton, who isn't getting enough credit for his growth over the last couple of years. People tend to forget before his injury against Detroit last season, Orton had thrown for 1669 yards, 10 TDs and only 4 interceptions. And this was with
Devin Hester and
Brandon Lloyd catching the passes! Now, he's going to be throwing to
Brandon Marshall (Deion Found Jesus) and
Eddie Royal (Beatubad). Granted, Denver has virtually no running game anymore and the o-line has a lot of questions, but with four 1st-round draft picks over the next two years, those questions can certainly be answered. Still, most experienced NFL coaches would tell you that when you have a sure thing at QB, there is no price you can put on that kind of security. This is especially true when you replace him with draft picks, an unknown commodity. So we're going to find out very soon, just how much
Josh McDaniels has learned from Bill Bellichick. Keep in mind, the Broncos are still in the dreadful AFC West, playing twice a year against
San Diego,
Oakland and
Kansas City. Even with a major downgrade at QB, the division is still winnable.
The Bears might very well have just picked up the best quarterback in the long history of their franchise. The only problem is Cutler REALLY needs to be exactly THAT (the best in their history) in order for the cost to be worth it. Chicago has
essentially mortgaged its future on Cutler.
If it pays off, the Super Bowl is within reach once again. If not? Well, they're screwed for another decade. Does this change the
fate of the NFC North? Consider the non-statistical benefit of having Cutler in Chicago.
Matt Williamson of Scouts Inc. says it best.
"You need a big, strong-armed guy to cut through the wind and the elements. I know it sounds simple, but the average fan tends to overlook that. Whenever you're shopping for a quarterback to play in Chicago, New York, Cleveland or somewhere like that, you better have a cannon and throw a spiral that can cut the wind. Cutler can do that in a big way. The defense has to guard the whole field, and that hasn't always been the case in the past 10 years or so in Chicago. Arm strength like that can make a lot of other problems go away."
Additionally, Jay Cutler is now going to be throwing the ball to a familiar face.
Earl Bennett, who didn't catch a single pass in his rookie season last year, played for Vanderbilt in Cutler's last season for the university. Bennett is expected to compete for the starting job opposite of Devin Hester in 2009, and having best friend Jay Cutler under center can only make that a greater possiblity.
Enough of that now.......
How does this affect the LOTC?
The most obvious impact will be on
Tenacious D, since Manager Ryan Hennesy was counting on Jay Cutler to be his franchise fantasy quarterback for the foreseeable future (alliteration, anyone?). Cutler is losing some quality weapons and is heading to a city whose team is historically formatted as a run-first team, and this one is no exception. Second-year RB
Matt Forte (
First or Last) emerged as a star in his rookie season and considering the
weapons the Bears have at receiver, one would have to think they aren't going to become a passing team, at least not right now. In 2008, Cutler was 2nd in the LOTC with 49.5 FPPG. Kyle Orton was 20th, with 33.9 FPPG. While Cutler will likely have more production than Orton did with the same weapons, it would be naive to think Cutler will remain a top-5 fantasy QB until the Bears equip him with a stud receiver.
When asked if he was concerned with Cutler's destination, Hennesy answered, "I feel as though he would have been better, fantasy-wise staying with Denver, but with the
signing of Pace and hopefully picking up a receiver in the draft, it could be a really positive experience."
Elsewhere around the league, Cutler's departure significantly impacts the fantasy value of Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal, both whom were designated keepers last year.
Marshall (25.7 FPPG, 5th LOTC) was arguably the best receiver on
DFJ Manager Robby Grunwald's roster. But with an impending suspension looming over his head, along with the departure of Jay Cutler, that
value is quickly dissipating. The good news for Grunwald is that he had some good foresight, designating two other quality receivers (
Antonio Bryant and
Reggie Wayne) as keepers at the end of the '08 season.
Cutler's absence doesn't seem to concern the DFJ manager at all.
"Brandon Marshall is a playmaker, no matter who is at QB," Grunwald said. "Kyle Orton is gonna blow it up."
Eddie Royal (24.9 FPPG, 6th LOTC) had a tremendous rookie season in 2008, particularly during Marshall's suspension. But no amount of success can change the fact that he is now the number two receiver on a team with no running game that just lost its star quarterback. This change probably drops Royal's fantasy value down all the way to a third option, and that is in a best-case scenario.
BEAT Owner/Manager Ben Weiss had simply this to say about Royal's likely fantasy decline.
"There isn't much I can do about it now."
On a more positive note, Cutler's arrival in Chicago is a
definite plus to TE
Greg Olsen (
Hybrids) and RB Matt Forte. Neither Owner/Manager of these players was available for comment.
Also Noteworthy:
- Cutler's entire family, including Cutler, has been a hardcore Bear-fan family for Cutler's entire life.
- Cutler lost his only game in Chicago, an OT loss in 2007. It was by no fault of Cutler's though. He threw for over 300 yards in the game and Denver lost primarily thanks to Devin Hester's two returns for touchdowns.
- Chicago's offensive coordinator, Ron Turner, was the head coach at the University of Illinois when Cutler was in high school. Cutler had committed to Illinois until Turner rescinded the scholarship at the last minute, forcing Cutler to scramble for another school to play for, Vanderbilt emerging as the beneficiary. One has to wonder if Cutler is still whining about that too.
