2009 Week 3 Outlook

Mind you, it has happened before. Teams have lost their first two games of the season and still had success. In fact, in the previous six seasons, two of the eventual champions started out at least 0-2 (Carmen Sutera, 2003 & Drew Brees, 2006). But the fact that it has happened before doesn't make the feat any easier to accomplish.

36 teams have made the playoffs in the league's history. Four of them started out 0-2. Two of those actually lost a third game, and for Joe Harper, it was the last time he lost that season. But let's face it; what happened to Joe in 2006 was a freakish coincidence. His team was clearly dominant, but in those first three games, he just happened to play the ONE team that scored the most points in their given week. No one really believed his team wasn't good, just unlucky. For the four teams yet to win a game through the first two weeks, circumstances have not been so similar.

Still, the Wrong Answer, Beatubad, Texas Thundermonkeys and First or Last franchises can take that little slice of history and use it to obtain whatever kind of hope comes with it. But there's virtually no hope if they can't take a victory in week 3, especially for a league title. TT and FOL will be facing off this week, so we're already assured of seeing at least one winless team by the time Monday Night Football is over.

Week 3 Match-Ups

Djibouti Crust (1-1-0) vs Hybrids (2-0-0)
All-time Regular Season: 3-3-0

• This game could very well be decided by some real-life injury decisions that likely wont be made until the last minute. Felix Jones (Djibouti Crust) could see an expanded role this week if Marion Barber (Texas Thundermonkeys) is held out. Additionally, Bryan Westbrook (Hybrids) is expected to be listed as 'Questionable' on the Eagles' injury report and could be losing quite a bit of playing time in this week's game against the Chiefs.

I Have a Bush (2-0-0) vs Beatubad (0-2-0)
All-time Regular Season: 2-2-0

• This game can comfortably be projected to get this weeks 'Toyota Biggest Fantasy Blowout' award, in favor of I Have a Bush, who also won it last week with a 78.5 point victory over Tenacious D. I Have a Bush has the luxury of being led by Drew Brees and Marques Colston, who have combined to score 191.5 points in the first two weeks alone. Meanwhile, Beatubad looks set have one of the worst seasons in league history, with Laurence Maroney being the best running back on their roster.

Deion Found Jesus (1-1-0) vs The Undisputed (2-0-0)
All-time Regular Season: 4-2-0, DFJ

• The Undisputed were lucky enough to get a record-breaking performance out of second-year running back, Chris Johnson, who managed to shatter RB fantasy records with 83 points in a single week. They are considerably lucky to be undefeated to this point, but still a quality team, reliant on Philip Rivers, Larry Fitzgerald and Chris Johnson to do most of the heavy lifting. Deion Found Jesus is hoping Tom Brady's dismal week two effort will not be repeated this week when the Patriots take on the Atlanta Falcons. They are hurting at running back (Darren Sproles and Michael Bush are starting this week), but you can never count a team out when they have Brady at QB.

I'm a Texan (1-1-0) vs Wrong Answer (0-2-0)
All-time Regular Season: 2-2-0

• I'm a Texan finally saw their mostly-Houston Texan lineup strategy pay off with huge dividends last week as Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels all turned in monster fantasy numbers in week two. The real questions for owner Stephen Dinger is whether his team is going to play like they did in week one or week two. The answer to that question will likely determine the outcome of this game against defending champion Wrong Answer, who are the most probable winless team to end up in the playoffs. Wrong Answer has to face one more week without the contributions of suspended RB Marshawn Lynch, but they won't be looking past I'm a Texan this week. This match-up is particularly intriguing with the frequent back-and-forth banter that these two managers have taken part in against each other in the recent past.

Vince Young (2-0-0) vs Tenacious D (1-1-0)
All-time Regular Season: 3-1-0, VY

• This game is especially intriguing to me, because Tenacious D are clearly trying to find some kind of identity with the players on their roster. Jay Cutler was easily one of the top five fantasy quarterbacks in the offseason until he was traded away to Chicago. Cutler is not going to repeat his superb 2008 season, but if he can increase his production just enough to give consistent quality numbers, Tenacious D might still be a title contender. But his opponent this week, Vince Young, has an absolutely lethal running back tandem (Adrian Peterson, Frank Gore) that makes them nearly impossible to beat every week. The Yahoo! projections have these two teams evenly matched, but Vince Young's questionable receiving corp is really the only factor that could give Tenacious D the edge.

Texas Thundermonkeys (0-2-0) vs First or Last (0-2-0)
All-time Regular Season: 1-0-0, TT

• The Texas Thundermonkeys have made the playoffs more than any other LOTC franchise in history, but that success appears about ready to run dry in 2009. On paper, the Thundermonkeys should be good enough to contend, but they fell short in both of their first two games. Now, it's all or nothing. They need a win to have any real shot at making the playoffs for the sixth time in seven years, and it looks like they're going to have to do it without the legs of Marion Barber. First or Last seemed certain to avoid the last-place 2-11 finish they had in 2008 after making some seemingly great trades at the end of last season, as well as having a solid draft this year. But two weeks into 2009, manager Gavin Espinoza still can't seem to 'win at life'. If Matt Forte can get out of this apparent sophomore slump, First or Last might still be able to salvage their first winning season, but doing so from an 0-3 hole would make the achievement highly unlikely. Forget the playoffs: for the sake of their history, no one is facing more of a must-win situation than First or Last.

LOTC teams to make the playoffs after starting at least 0-2:

- Carmen Sutera, 2003, Phil Massine (No Longer in League)

• Started: 0-2-0
• Finished: 8-5-0
• Final Outcome: 2003 League Champion

- Da Boyz, 2004, David Onyon (Now 'The Undisputed')

• Started: 0-3-0
• Finished: 8-6-0
• Final Outcome: Lost 1st Round to eventual runner-up In Carr We Trust (Now 'I'm a Texan')

- Drew Brees, 2006, Joseph Harper (Now 'I Have a Bush')

• Started: 0-3-0
• Finished: 10-3-0
• Final Outcome: 2006 League Champion

- Vince Young, 2008, Aaron Diehl

• Started 0-2-0
• Finished: 8-5-0
• Final Outcome: Lost 1st Round to eventual runner-up Beatubad

**UPDATE**
As per Aaron's question, there have been a few teams to start 2-0 and miss the playoffs.

In the past six seasons, 19 teams have started 2-0 or better. Of those 19 teams, 15 went on to make the playoffs. The only person still in this league who has missed the playoffs after a 2-0 start is Ben (Beatubad), and he's done it twice. To be fair, the first time it happened was in 2003, which was the only season where we only had four playoff teams.

2003 - Beatubad
 Started: 3-0
 Finished: 7-6, 5th place

2004 - Garden Gnomes (Phil Massine, No Longer in League)
 Started: 2-0
 Finished: 6-8, 10th place

2005 - The Greatest (John Jemison, No Longer in League)
 Started: 2-0
 Finished: 4-9, 9th place

2007 - Beatubad
 Started: 4-0
 Finished: 6-7, 8th place

So now here's the fun stuff. If history is any kind of indicator of odds, you have a 78.9% chance of making the playoffs by starting 2-0. So one of you four teams are probably going to miss out. Starting out 3-0 (12 times in history) gives you an 83.3% chance of making the playoffs, and yet, a 4-0 start (7 times in history) barely improves your odds, at 85.7%.

Only twice has any LOTC team started 5-0 or better. Dinger did it in 2004, with In Carr We Trust. And the best start in league history was 6-0 by David, with The Undisputed in 2005. David finished out that regular season 3-4, but managed to get back on track in time for the playoffs to win the championship. So apparently, a 6-0 start gives you a 100% chance of winning the title.

But if you're Ben Weiss, a 3-0 start apparently gives you a 67% chance of missing the playoffs.

League History Corrected

I was finally able to completely correct all of the league history errors that resulted from me mixing up Paul's (The Tigers) and David's (Da Boyz) teams in 2004.

The overall records have been corrected, dropping Paul from 6th all-time to 9th, while David jumped up from 10th to 8th.

Also, the all-time head-to-head records have been corrected, which was the most tedious part of the fix. The most notable thing from this correction is that it means Paul has never beaten Ryan in the six match-ups they have had against each other, which makes their week 4 meeting all-the-more interesting.

League History

2-0 and 0-2 teams

After only two weeks played, it is too early to make any long-term predictions for the season. That said, if you are off to a 2-0 start, things are going to be a little easier for you. On the other hand, if you are 0-2, it is more of an uphill climb the rest of the way out. (However, I will not forget the 0-3 start I Have a Bush had a few seasons ago...then he went 10-0 the rest of the regular season and won the title.) Let's look at the undefeated and the winless thus far:

2-0

Vince Young, I Have a Bush, Deion Found Jesus*, The Undisputed*

0-2

BeatUBad, Wrong Answer, Thundermonkeys, FIRSTorLAST

___________________________________________________________________

*These are not set in stone, these are based on MNF predictions which I feel are pretty accurate.

Trade News

'I Have a Bush' has traded WR Devery Henderson to the 'Vince Young' franchise for RB Mike Bell. The trade goes into effect on time for week 2 games.

South Preview

At first glance, it might seem like Aaron Diehl is a safe bet to take his Vince Young team to a 2009 division title in the loaded South, but a closer look hints at another possible outcome.

Granted, a healthy season for his starting lineup would almost certainly give Diehl an easy road to one of the six playoff spots in the LOTC postseason but a division title could be a totally different story.

Joe Harper has Drew Brees, the 2008 fantasy point champion, quarterbacking I Have a Bush, as well as a healthy MJD in one of his running back slots. Jones-Drew is officially the man in Jacksonville, with the departure of Fred Taylor, and being THE man is an increasingly rare quality in today's NFL format of sharing the load in the backfield.

Of course it just so happens the other two South teams are full of running backs that don't have to share the load. Stephen Dinger (I'm a Texan) has a running back lineup that consists of Steve Slaton, Ryan Grant and Larry Johnson and Diehl boasts possibly the strongest tandem in Adrian Peterson and Frank Gore.

Both owners also boast having a quarterback to contend tremendously against I Have a Bush's Brees. With weapons like Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels, Matt Schaub is a fantasy dream, provided he doesn't suffer another late-hit injury. He could quite easily give Dinger some of the best quarterback numbers in 2009. Diehl is set to rely on the arm of Kurt Warner once again this season. Warner has the luxury of throwing the ball to one of the most lethal receiver tandems in NFL history, with Fitzgerald and Boldin on the outside. Even more exciting for Diehl is the fact that if anything happens to Warner, he won't lose much production at all with another star as a backup; Carson Palmer.

At receiver, I Have a Bush seems to have the most shaky starting lineup, though few fantasy managers would complain to have a healthy Marques Colston as their number one guy. It's the other guys who are a bit shaky. Hines Ward is always dependable, but can't be counted on to get strong numbers anymore, as he ages more and loses many throws to Santonio Holmes this season. After Colston and Ward, Harper employs three other Saints receivers and the expired hands of Muhsin Muhammad. This leaves a lot of doubt in the way of depth. He does have the benefit of starting Jeremy Shockey at tight end, but it is again, a moot point in the loaded South, where Dinger and Diehl start Owen Daniels and Chris Cooley, respectively. I'm a Texan has Andre Johnson, who is undoubtedly the best fantasy receiver whenever he plays, but Andre does tend to miss several games every year, which could prove costly. Dinger also starts Kevin Walter and Donnie Avery, who, if healthy, is likely to have a tremendous season in St. Louis with the departure of Torry Holt. Vince Young is solid, with Calvin Johnson, Anthony Gonzalez and Steve Breaston at receiver. I would even have given him the edge at the position except for the fact that he has literally no other receivers on the roster, which could pose a serious problem.

Prognosis: This division has three strong teams, with little weakness in their starting lineups. But this game is won with depth, especially at wide receiver and running back. Because of this, I give a slight edge to I'm a Texan, provided his Texan players can finally stay healthy for an entire season. Close behind him, if not finding a way to win the division outright, will be Diehl's Vince Young franchise. While I Have A Bush seems likely to finish last in the division, his team is strong enough to surprise and work its way into the playoff race, but if anything happens to any one of his stars (Brees, MJD or Colston), I don't see any chance of salvaging a strong season.

I'm a Texan and Vince Young will both make the playoffs.

West Division Preview

Now, let's take a look at the West Division.

Members: The Undisputed, FirstORLast, Hybrids

2008 Summary: Of these three teams, only the Hybrids made the playoffs last season. FirstOrLast, in their first season in the league, did back up their team name; unfortunately for them, not the position they had hoped for. The Undisputed finished in 10th. There is definitely room for improvement in the 2009-2010 season for the members of the LOTC West Division.

2009 Preview: This could be a very close divison. Each team has playoff potential. This division will fight for one of the two wild-card spots.

Hybrids

There should be a lot of solid performers on the Hybrids this season. Welker should continue to get a lot of receptions. Ochocinco is now the clear #1 and has Carson Palmer returning. Also, there are 3 good RBs on this team; a characteristic that most teams do not have. Westbrook, Williams, and Portis will all produce numbers....IF healthy. Portis and Westbrook each have some injury risk. However, the Hybrids have a deep bench, so if any injury does occur, they should be ok. Oh yeah, if DeAngelo Williams somehow remains the fantasy freak that he was for the second half of last season...look out. The one question for this team, and it is an important question, is this: what numbers will McNabb put up this season? Will Vick steal any of his thunder? Will he be healthy for a consecutive season? The Hybrids are poised to have a good season, but if McNabb does not have a good year, that will offset some of the other positives this team will have.

The Undisputed

There are two strong areas for this team: Philip Rivers and the receiver positions. Fitzgerald is the superstar WR, and I think that Edwards, Driver, Coles, and Holt will all be solid contributors at the WR position. Jason Witten will remain in the top group of tight ends this year. Unfortunately for the Undisputed, the RB position is not very strong. Chris Johnson is a stud, but will have some TDs poached by Lendale White, and White will take a decent amount of handoffs as well. But, the Titans run the ball A LOT, so Johnson will still put up good numbers. However, Jospeh Addai and Jamal Lewis are no sure things. The Undisputed will need a suprise year from one of these RBs in order to make the playoffs this year.

FIRSTorLAST

Well, let's just say that FIRSTorLAST will not be in either first....or last...this season. Michael Turner and Matt Forte will put up very good numbers for this team. I doubt that both of these backs will be quite as strong as last season, but they are still two of the best RBs in the league. Matt Ryan should continue to develop and put up better than average numbers. He is not a superstar, but a solid option at QB. The fate of this team depends on how well the rest of the offensive positions perform. TJ whosyomamma will do well. If he does REALLY well, that will relieve some of the pressure that is on Berrian, Hixon, and rookie Knowshon Moreno. Berrian did not play this preseason, Hixon has to find out where exactly he fits in the Giant offense sans Plax, and Moreno is a rookie in the fantasy-frustrating backfield of the Broncos. Wait, I almost forgot about possibly the best TE in the game, Antonio Gates. He should put forth another Gates-like season and will provide no worries for the manager.

Playoff Prediction: Division winner Hybrids will make the playoffs again this year; McNabb will put up good enough numbers to complement the other contributors on this team. Both FIRSTorLAST and the Undisputed will need to have one or two things go their way to make the playoffs. I feel that the second place team will fight for one of the wild-card spots. This team will be FIRSTorLAST, showing a big improvement from last season. The Undisputed will compete, but will finish the division in 3rd.

East Division Preview

"The temperature outside is 74 degrees with a slight wind out of the southeast. Please keep your seat belts securely fastened until we have connected with the jetway and the pilot has turned off the seat belt sign. We know you have many choices when you fly; thank you for flying with us today. And welcome to..."

We have arrived. All our bags came in nicely at the baggage claim (except yours... they searched yours, and your undies are hanging out from where they didn't really zip it back up). Rental car checked out nicely; they even upgraded us. And we're all checked in at the hotel. We're here. The time has come. No more waiting.

Let's do this.

After a long, grueling off-season filled with suspensions and reinstatements, retirements and unretirements, trades and free-agent signings, the NFL season is now. Which means Fantasy Football for the League of the Crust has already begun. But, before all the rip-off trades get offered and the league point leaders get screwed out of wins (who's bitter?), I wanted to do a preview of the East division. So here it goes.

Thundermonkeys R Go!
JMB had one of the more solid lineups last year, and this year it shouldn't be much different. Aaron Rodgers is going to be one of the 5 best fantasy QBs this year, and Greg Jennings is only going to get better. The team did take a major blow when Terrel Owens was signed by the Buffalo Bills, relegating Lee Evans to a number 2 WR. Essentially, it's going to be impossible for both of those wide outs to have a huge day on the same week. But, they are both stud receivers, and with some insecurity at the RB position, it looks as though the Bills may turn to the air for offensive production. Everyone knows that both Marion Barber and Brandon Jacobs are going to produce, and Matt Ryan is going to love his new security blanket in Tony Gonzales. And, if for some reason they don't hit it off, Visanthe Shiancoe is going to make a killing off Brett Favre. He's poised for a breakout year. The Thundermokeys biggest challenge is going to come when his backups are forced to play, either via bye week or injury. There's not really anyone worth putting into a starting lineup on the bench, and because of that, this team will lose some games it probably should win.

Djibouti Crust
Jorge's team has a really interesting makeup. There are a lot of guys that are going to be consistent point factories, but not many that are going to wow us with their massive performances. Romo's career is at a crossroads, and he should step up to the plate this year, and having a whole off-season with new number 1 Roy Williams should be a big help (to Romo, Williams, the Cowboys, and The Crust). Dwayne Bowe is hoping that the Chiefs didn't jump the gun on Cassell, a move that will be scrutinized throughout the season, and the Chargers are hoping for another 1,000+ yards out of Vincent Jackson. Djibouti Crust's weakest position group is that of Running Back. While led by the sure-fire Pierre Thomas (although starting the season injured is never a good sign), the other backs are question marks. Ced Benson is gearing up for his last hurrah, hoping to make the splash that some expected at the beginning of his career, and Felix Jones is trying to stay healthy so he does make that impact that he showed he could last year. The sleeper of this team might be TE Dustin Keller. Superstar rookie QBs and solid running games can make tight ends look really good, and Keller is a good enough player to capitalize on an opportunity like this one. Oh, and mark my words: Jorge will get a victory this year solely on the backs of the best defense in the NFL, the Minnesota Vikings. Overall, if a few of Jorge's question marks turn into exclamation points, Djibouti Crust could be tough to beat.

Deion Found Jesus
Robby G is poised to score the most points via the pass than any other team in the League of the Crust this season. Tom Brady is back and his knee looks healthy. He's not going to throw 50 TDs again, but he should be in the 40s. And, while I'm glad that I am not the proud owner of one Brandon Marshall simply because it is hard to replace the arm of his former QB, Jake Cutler, it would be a mistake to deny his immense talent. Marshall isn't the only 1200-yard receiver on DFJ that lost his passer in the off-season either. Antonio Bryant is coming off of a breakout year, and expecting one of the 19 Buccaneer QBs to just get the ball somewhere close to him. Also, there's Reggie Wayne. Enough said. Even Chris Henry should have a solid (if not stellar) year. Carson is back in action, and Henry has looked good in camp and the pre-season. However, Robby is going to struggle mightily to score points on the ground. LT is always good for points, as long as he can stay on the field, which isn't a guarantee. I am, however, concerned that Darren Sproles, the other back on the Bolts, is also going to be starting opening day for DFJ. While he will get a point for every hand-off the Chargers run this year, he has handicapped himself by nearly guaranteeing not having a day when both RBs are stars. And if either goes down, he has no one to pick up the pieces.

Prediction
When the season comes to a close after week 13, the credits will roll in the order they appeared.

Thundermonkeys are going to lead this division with great QB play and two of the best RBs in the league. Greg Jennings is going to show that he, along with Rodgers, are undervalued.

Djibouti Crust will finish second through surprise efforts on the parts of Romo, R. Williams, and Benson. All three are going to out-perform their expectations, and the rest of his lineup is going to keep him consistently competitive.

That relegates Deion Found Jesus to last in the division, but only by a nose. The lack of any real running backs on any team not playing in SoCal is going to be his demise. Don't get me wrong, he's gonna light a few people up, and may even finish this season with the highest single week score, but any week where the Chargers play a team with good run defense, it's going to be tough to win.


So, there you have it. The East division in (really long) nutshell. Now please stow all tray tables and place seat backs in the upright and locked position, because we're taking off. And it might be a bumpy ride.

North Division Preview

With the new NFL season just starting, let's take a look at the League of the Crust divisions.

North Division

Members - Tenacious D, Beatubad, Wrong Answer.

2008 Summary: Each of these three teams made the playoffs last year. This is the only division that can claim that. Wrong Answer is the defending champion, and had the best W-L record last year. Tenacious D finished only 1 game above .500 last season, but was #1 in points. Beatubad snuck into the playoffs in 6th place, but then made a run to the finals and finished 2nd to Wrong Answer. Needless to say, the North Division's teams had strong seasons last year.

2009 Preview: First place, Tenacious D. Cutler should have another strong year in Chicago, Moss has Brady throwing to him, Roddy White poised to have another very strong year, and Steven Jackson is still a hoss. Also, Thomas Jones should benefit from a NY Jets offense that will run the ball a lot since rookie Mark Sanchez is the starting QB. The points will still be there this year for Tenacious D, but this year they will have a little more luck with the wins. Second place, Beatubad. This team is a mix of sure things and question marks. Peyton Manning will put up good numbers. Steve Smith, as long as he is healthy, will put up good numbers. Beatubad should have solid contributors in Eddie Royal and red-zone threat TE John Carlson. However, there are big question marks at the rest of the offensive positions. A rookie RB, a RB on a committee, and two mediocre at best WRs. Since this team has the elder Manning, and some strong WRs, I have giving them the slight edge to take 2nd place in the division. Third place, Wrong Answer. I am sure I will be wrong about this, as Wrong Answer managed to have the 2nd fewest points scored of the playoff teams last year, but had the most wins, and won the title. But, there are just too many questions for me to go on record predicting a great season for this team. The younger Manning, Eli, is just not a strong fantasy QB, and he is still without Plaxico Burress. Boldin and Jackson should put up good numbers at the WR position for Wrong Answer. Dallas Clark will remain a favored target for Peyton Manning and will contribute at the TE position. Similar to Beatubad, there are uncertainties at the RB position and flex position. I think the 2nd and 3rd place team in this division are facing similar issues, but I give the advantage to the team with the better Manning at QB.

Playoff Outlook: Only the division winner will make the playoffs this year.