Sunday, December 27, 2009

Important News: Everyone Should Read This

Not that this blog is bloated with readers hanging on every word in every post, but I'm still sorry it's been a couple of weeks since I updated any news or history for the LOTC. Things have gotten very busy for my other job at Nova Fantasy Sports (obviously, with the fantasy playoffs going on right now), so I've been forced to neglect some of my less-important hobbies.

So it might seem rather sudden to be reminded that your FINAL keeper designations are due by midnight tomorrow night, but they are. I hope everyone meets the deadline, because every every draft pick you own will go down one spot for each day the deadline is missed. You can post your designations on our yahoo page OR as a comment on this blog. If you've already turned in your designations, please check that I've entered them correctly by going here and looking under the 'Keeper Designations' tab, under 2010.

In other news, this might or might not be important to you, but I have decided to stop managing my Djibouti Crust team next season. I'm the sort of crazed organizational nut who loves playing fantasy football, but who loves running a league as a commissioner even more. My already abnormal obsession has enabled me to [hopefully] deliver a product to you guys that is far superior to any other fantasy football league you are in. For me, my increased involvement in running things behind the scenes has hindered my ability to manage my team as well as I would like. I've actually been pondering this decision since the last offseason. There's even more changes I want to make in years to come to enhance and improve the LOTC experience and those changes will only make it harder for me to manage my team while maintaining the high standard that I want to hold as a league commissioner.

Like I said, I think one of the benefits to this decision will be that I can devote even more time to making this league the best fantasy football experience possible. Another pro is that you will have the benefit of having a commissioner who can make decisions and rulings as objectively as humanly possible. I'll obviously want to see the excellent heritage of the Djibouti Crust franchise continue, so I'll be pulling for them every year. But it still allows me to make more of the inevitably controversial decisions without the question of whether my choice is motivated by my own team's success. One of the settings changes to be brought about by this decision will be the dissolution of the trade approval committee. Now, all decisions on trades will be made by someone who is not running one of the teams in the league.

You can also now expect me to start planning an ACTUAL draft party every year. We had some makeshift stuff at Buffalo Wild Wings for a few years, but since I was trying to prepare for my own team's draft, I didn't put very much thought or effort into planning the party. I'm going to start planning the 2010 draft NOW, and I plan on having it at someone's house. At this point, almost half of the league managers are NOT living in Dallas and we might be even more spread out by the time the next season starts, but I figure with enough notice, we can at least get the majority of this group together for a draft party.

So that's that. I wouldn't bother protesting (if you were planning on it) because I'm not going to change my decision. I'm honestly more excited than ever about what this decision means for the LOTC and I think you will all eventually agree that it was a very good decision.

And in case you were wondering, the individual taking over management of the Djibouti Crust franchise is one of my good friends, Jacob Herrera, whom many of you already know. You probably didn't notice his username under my team page, but I added him as a co-manager more than a week ago so that he could take a look at the roster and choose his own keepers for next season. I'm fully confidant he'll do well in carrying on the great Djibouti Crust heritage.

Also, congratulations to Joe and David, whose teams, 'The Big Breesy' and 'The Undisputed' are facing off for the championship this week, which means we will finally have our first ever two-time champion in the LOTC.

Tuesday, December 15, 2009

Upcoming changes for the 2010 Season

Most of the changes are minimal, and this list is not at all complete, but I will update it as more ideas come to me.


  1. Interceptions will count for -2 points now, instead of -1
  2. Completions will now be worth .5 points instead of 1.
  3. Preseason trades of keeper designations will be allowed, but with a number of stipulations, including tighter approval guidelines, requirement to maintain the minimum position count (1 QB, 2 WR, 1 RB, 1 TE, 1 K/DEF).
  4. Pre-draft trades of redshirt designations will also be trade-able on the condition that both managers draft the redshirt player AND that the terms are even.
More to come with time.

Tuesday, December 8, 2009

2009 Regular Season Records & Interesting Facts

+ As of this moment, we at least know the first six draft spots (although Ben owns about half of the picks in the first round) in each round for next year's draft. They are, as follows.....
  1. Beatubad
  2. First or Last
  3. Texas Thundermonkeys
  4. Wrong Answer
  5. Vince Young
  6. I'm a Texan
+ In his second season as a manager in the LOTC, Gavin Espinoza improved his First or Last franchise's sinle-season win total from two in 2008, to three in 2009. I'm not sure there should be such a thing as an 'expansion team slump' in fantasy football, but it seems to be what's happened in this case. Here's to you Gavin. I hope you can at least double your five all-time wins next season.

+ David Onyon's The Undisputed franchise had the biggest improvement from one year to the next, improving his win-total by six games in 2009. The second-greatest improvement this season was Jorge Parrales's Djibouti Crust, which had a four-win increase. Conversely, both Texas Thundermonkeys and Beatubad experienced six-game declines in 2009, and defending champion Wrong Answer declined by five games.

+ Stephen Dinger is probably happy to know that an LOTC all-time record that he owned has no been broken by another manager. Ben Weiss set a new mark for the longest losing streak in a single-season by starting this season 0-10.

+ This is the first time in seven seasons that no manager turned out a double-digit final score. The lowest scoring output of the season was Dinger's 129-point score in his opening-week loss to Aaron Diehl.

+ With Aaron Diehl's Vince Young missing out on the playoffs this season, the league-record for most consecutive seasons in the playoffs stands at three, an achievement held by Vince Young ('06-'08), Texas Thundermonkeys ('03-'05), Djibouti Crust ('03-'05), Tenacious D ('07-09), Deion Found Jesus ('05-'07), and The Undisputed ('04-'06). If Tenacious D make the playoffs in 2010, they will hold the new record of four consecutive seasons. Tenacious D, Djibouti Crust and Texas Thundermonkeys hold the record for the most overall playoff seasons, with five.

+ Wrong Answer is the fourth of six champions to miss the playoffs the year after their championship season. The only two league champions to make the playoffs in their title-defense season are The Undisputed and Vince Young.

+ Speaking of league champions, the LOTC has seen six first-time league champions since its inception in 2003. This year's top-two seeded teams, The Undisputed and The Big Breesy have both previously won a championship. In the four seasons that we have had a bye game in the first round of the playoffs, a bye team has won the championship twice. So history tells us we have a 50% chance of seeing our first repeat champion in league history.

2009 Regular Season Wrap-Up

Well, it was yet another successful regular season of fantasy football in the LOTC, and I'm very grateful to all twelve managers for being active and competitive all season long. In the coming weeks, there will be several updates and news regarding what you can expect in the offseason and next season, including some changes (mostly minor) that will be incorporated into the settings in the future. In the meanwhile, I thought I would recap some of the highlights from the regular season and also take a moment to preview this week's matchups. So without further ado.......

It was highly unlikely. In fact, to my memory, it was the least-likely win-and-in scenario I had ever seen. Jorge Parrales's (yes, me) Djibouti Crust franchise was holding on to a one-game lead over I'm a Texan and Vince Young as we headed into the final week of regular season games. But I was playing The Big Breesy, who would end up earning the #2 seed and first-round bye. The loss was imminent. If Djibouti Crust lost, all I'm a Texan needed was a win, because they had scored 100+ points more throughout the season, giving them the tiebreaker over the Crust. And, if Djibouti Crust and I'm a Texan both happened to lose, Vince Young needed a win AND 40 more points than Djibouti Crust to earn the final playoff spot.

Headed into Monday night's game between Green Bay and Baltimore, Djibouti Crust had clearly lost their game this week, I'm a Texan needed only 32.5 points between Ryan Grant and Derrick Mason (averaging 46 combined ppg to that point) to win their game, and Vince Young had successfully outscored Djibouti Crust by 43 points and held a 52-point lead against Texas Thundermonkeys, who had Aaron Rodgers and Greg Jennings (averaging 69.5 combined ppg to that point) left to play. The Vince Young franchise was eliminated by the first minute in the third quarter, as Aaron Rodgers turned in a spectacular performance. But the real shocker came in the mere 18 points that Ryan Grant and Derrick Mason combined to score for I'm a Texan, giving them the loss and giving Djibouti Crust the final playoff berth.

Djibouti Crust might have scrapped their way into the playoffs, but the magic seems highly unlikely to continue as they take on East division rival and winner, Deion Found Jesus, whom they have already lost to twice this season. Until this 2009 season, Djibouti Crust had enjoyed tremendous success against Deion Found Jesus, having only lost to Robby Grunwald's franchise once in five meetings. But Robby now has an opportunity to even things out at 4-4-0 if he can win one more time against Jorge. This marks the first meeting between thes two teams in the playoffs.

The #4 vs #5 matchup features North division winner Tenacious D and West division runner-up Hybrids, who just played each other last week in the final regular season game. If the results from that game (Hybrids won by 104.5 points) are an indication of what we should expect in this one, Hybrids should easily coast their way into the second-round. This is actually the second meeting between these two teams in the playoffs. The first was last season, in the #4 vs #5 first-round matchup. Hybrids also won that game, but lost in the second round to eventual champion Wrong Answer. My guess is that Ryan Hennesy is looking to make a change to his recent history against Tim/Michelle/David Ferguson.

Saturday, December 5, 2009

Keeper Selections Coming Due

While the deadline for posting your official keeper designations is not until Tuesday, December 29, managers who miss the playoffs will only be able to make their selections from their final rosters at the end of the regular season. Free Agent pickups made after this Monday will not be eligible keeper options for non-playoff teams.

Thursday, December 3, 2009

Need Volunteers for Experimental League

I'm looking for five other managers (preferably all from the LOTC) to join me in an entirely experimental auction draft salary-cap league next season. The only reason I'm asking right now is because I'd like to know who the mangers will be so that I can communicate with you throughout the offseason while I work out the kinks on the settings and what-not. It's not meant to be a replacement to the LOTC by any means. I'm actually wanting to incorporate these changes into the LOTC in the next few years, and this experimental league will only exist until that happens. You'll essentially be guinea-pigs for a 'hopefully' radical shift in the way fantasy football is played.

There will only be bragging rights at stake. I am asking that you only commit to it if you can assure that you will remain highly active in both this league and the experimental one next season. There will be absolutely no offense for choosing to pass on it.

The basic idea of it will be a pre-set salary cap. We will bid on all players for our draft and once the draft is completed, all free agents will be assigned a 'dollar-value'. Adding and dropping will take place without waivers of any kind, you just must always stay at or below the salary cap at all times. A player's dollar-value is re-evaluated three times throughout the year (weeks 3, 7, 10) based on their performance throughout the season. There's more, but we'll leave it at that right now by way of teasers.

If you're interested, please text me and let me know.

Tuesday, December 1, 2009

Week 13 Matchups & All-Time Records

In an unlikely turn of events, Stephen Dinger's I'm a Texan franchise lost their week 12 game to the Texas Thundermonkeys which, coupled with a Djibouti Crust victory over Vince Young, put Djibouti Crust back into the driver's seat for the sixth and final spot for this year's playoffs. In any case, pretty much all of the playoff-relevant teams are playing for something.

The Undisputed have essentially clinched the top overall spot since they have a full-game lead over Ryan Hennesy's Tenacious D AND have outscored them by 250 points this season. Even if The Undisputed managed to lose to Beatubad (1-11), there is no chance Tenacious D can overcome that kind of point differential in a single game.

The number two seed and second bye game is a whole different scenario. If Tenacious D can defeat a very tough opponent in The Hybrids, that spot goes to Tenacious D. But a loss to Hybrids and a win by either The Big Breesy or Deion Found Jesus will cause Tenacious D to play in the wild-card round.

The Hybrids join division rival The Undisputed as the only other team whose playoff spot is pretty much certain. Regardless of how the other divisions play out, Hybrids will finish second in their own division, but have the better record or tiebreaker over whoever gets the sixth playoff spot, so they will be facing off against the lowest ranked division winner, likely to be either Tenacious D or Deion Found Jesus.

The final spot will belong to Djibouti Crust (7-5, 2482 points) , I'm a Texan (6-6, 2595 points) or Vince Young (6-6, 2444 points). If Djibouti Crust can defeat The Big Breesy, they will have earned the last spot. If Djibouti loses and I'm a Texan beats Deion Found Jesus, I'm a Texan will get the last spot. And lastly, if Djibouti Crust and I'm a Texan lose and Vince Young wins AND outscores Djibouti Crust by 40+ points, Vince Young will get the final spot.

Week 13 Matchups

Djibouti Crust (7-5-0) vs The Big Breesy (8-4-0)
Joe leads all-time 2-1-0

Hybrids (8-4-0) vs Tenacious D (9-3-0)
All-time 4-4-0 (Ryan leads regular season 4-3-0)

Deion Found Jesus (8-4-0) vs I'm a Texan (6-6-0)
All-time 2-2-0

Wrong Answer (4-8-0) vs First or Last (3-9-0)
Paul leads all-time 1-0-0

Vince Young (6-6-0) vs Texas Thundermonkeys (2-10-0)
JMB leads all-time 3-1-0

Beatubad (1-11-0) vs The Undisputed (10-2-0)
Ben leads all-time 3-2-0

Saturday, November 28, 2009

Week 12 Matchups & All-Time Records

Well if anybody has reason to hate the yardage-bonus structure that I added to the settings three years ago, that person is myself. As Matt Schaub led the Texans on what turned out to be a futile final drive against Tennessee on Monday Night Football, his last completion was a four-yard dump to Kevin Walter. That short pass was enough to push Schaub over the 300-yard mark for the game, which added three bonus points to I'm a Texan's final score, giving Dinger the two-point victory over myself and Djibouti Crust. The loss for me essentially ends all hope of a spot in the playoffs, considering my final two matchups are against Vince Young and The Big Breesy. For Dinger, the second-consecutive win marks what seemed an unlikely turnaround for I'm a Texan, as he now holds the rights to the sixth and final playoff spot with only two more games to play. With Dinger also holding the division-record tiebreaker and playing the lowly Texas Thundermonkeys this week, it all-but-guarantees that Aaron's Vince Young franchise will need to win out just to have a chance to get in.

Week 12 Matchups

Djibouti Crust (6-5-0) vs Vince Young (6-5-0)
All-time 2-2-0 (Jorge leads regular season 2-1-0)

Hybrids (7-4-0) vs Beatubad (1-10-0)
All-time 5-5-1 (Tim leads regular season 5-4-1)

The Big Breesy (7-4-0) vs Deion Found Jesus (8-3-0)
Robby leads all-time 3-2-0

I'm a Texan (6-5-0) vs Texas Thundermonkeys (1-10-0)
All-time 3-3-0

Wrong Answer (4-7-0) vs The Undisputed (9-2-0)
David leads all-time 4-3-0 (Regular season tied 3-3-0)

Tenacious D (9-2-0) vs First or Last (1-10-0)
Ryan leads all-time 1-0-0

Tuesday, November 17, 2009

Week 11 Matchups & All-Time Records

The extremely improbable took place last week, as Dinger's I'm a Texan managed to upset Joe's The Big Breesy, despite being a 70-point underdog going in to the match. Most of us were laughing at Dinger as he traded away his 4th, 5th and 6th round picks to Gavin simply to acquire Derrick Mason for this week's game against Joe. The difference was 7.5 points, which just happened to be enough for Dinger to get the 6-point victory. Nobody's laughing now. Kudos to Dinger, who stays alive in the playoff race for at least another week.

Week 11 Match-Ups

Djibouti Crust (6-4-0) vs I'm a Texan (5-5-0)
Dinger leads all-time 6-4-0

Hybrids (6-4-0) vs Wrong Answer (4-6-0)
Paul leads all-time 4-2-0

The Big Breesy (6-4-0) vs Texas Thundermonkeys (1-9-0)
JMB leads all-time 3-1-0

Deion Found Jesus (7-3-0) vs Vince Young (6-4-0)
Robby leads all-time 3-2-0

Beatubad (0-10-0) vs First or Last (2-8-0)
Gavin leads all-time 1-0-0

The Undisputed (8-2-0) vs Tenacious D (9-1-0)
David leads all-time 5-4-0 

Thursday, November 12, 2009

Week 10 Matchups & All-Time Records

Well, Tenacious D defied all odds and did the impossible. Despite both star running backs (Steven Jackson and Thomas Jones) being on a bye, he managed to get by with Derrick Ward as his best starting running back. Nine weeks into the season, Ryan has a division title and the first playoff spot. That leaves five spots for the rest of us to fight for. Mathematically, Beatubad and Texas Thundermonkeys are the only two teams out of the running, but First or Last and Wrong Answer will both be out next week, win or lose. That means there are seven of us vying for the last five spots. If Big Breesy can beat I'm a Texan, it almost ensures that Dinger will be the next one of out of the playoff race, so that's the game I'm watching for.

Week 10 Match-ups

Djibouti Crust (6-3-0) vs Tenacious D* (8-1-0)
Ryan leads all-time 5-4-0

Hybrids (6-3-0) vs The Undisputed (7-2-0)
Tim leads all-time 3-2-0

The Big Breesy (6-3-0) vs I'm a Texan (4-5-0)
Dinger leads all-time 3-1-0

Deoin Found Jesus (6-3-0) vs Texas Thundermonkeys (1-8-0)
JMB leads all-time 5-3-0 (All-time regular season tied, 3-3-0)

Wrong Answer (3-6-0) vs Beatubad (0-9-0)
Paul leads all-time 6-2-0

Vince Young (5-4-0) vs First or Last (2-7-0)
Aaron leads all-time 1-0-0

Tuesday, November 3, 2009

Week 9 Matchups & All-time Records

A convincing win over Deion Found Jesus, coupled with a last minute loss for Wrong Answer in week eight has given Ryan Hennesy's Tenacious D a four-game division lead with six games left in the season. But it gets even juicier than that. Tenacious D and Wrong Answer are facing off against each other in week 9, meaning that if Hennesy can beat out Paul Ferguson this week, he will have officially clinched a playoff berth......already. Even if Tenacious D lost their last five games and Wrong Answer won theirs, Tenacious D would have won the divisional record, giving him the tiebreaker. So this is clearly the game of the week as we kick off the last six weeks of the regular season.

Week 9 Match-ups


Djibouti Crust (5-3-0) vs Texas Thundermonkeys (1-7-0)
Jorge leads all-time 5-4-0 (Regular season tied @ 4-4-0)

Hybrids (5-3-0) vs First or Last (2-6-0)
All-time 1-1-0

The Big Breesy (6-2-0) vs Vince Young (4-4-0)
Aaron leads all-time 3-2-0

Deion Found Jesus (5-3-0) vs Beatubad (0-8-0)
Robby leads all-time 4-3-0

I'm a Texan (4-4-0) vs The Undisputed (6-2-0)
All-time 3-3-0 (David leads regular season 3-1-0)

Wrong Answer (3-5-0) vs Tenacious D (7-1-0)
Ryan leads all-time 7-0-0
 

Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Week Eight Match-ups & All-Time Records

We just passed the halfway mark for the 2009 season. Even seven seasons into an established league, we are seeing new things, such as two teams (Beatubad and Texas Thundermonkeys) that have yet to register a win after seven games. Before this season no team had ever started worse than 0-6 (The Wrath of Korea, 2004, John Jemison - NLIL and I Really Have a Bush, 2007, Joe Harper), but we're always open to new things. Unfortunately for one of these managers, the streak will be extended at least one more week, as the two winless managers face off in week 8.

Week 8 Match-ups

Djibouti Crust (4-3-0) vs Wrong Answer (3-4-0)
All-time 3-3-0 (Jorge leads the regular season record 3-2-0)

Hybrids (4-3-0) vs I'm a Texan (4-3-0)
Tim leads all-time 5-3-0

The Big Breesy (5-2-0) vs First or Last (2-5-0)
Joe leads all-time 2-0-0

Deion Found Jesus (5-2-0) vs Tenacious D (6-1-0)
All-time 3-3-0

Vince Young (3-4-0) vs The Undisputed (6-1-0)
Aaron leads all-time 2-1-0

Beatubad (0-7-0) vs Texas Thundermonkeys (0-7-0)
JMB leads all-time 5-3-1

Wednesday, September 23, 2009

2009 Week 3 Outlook

Mind you, it has happened before. Teams have lost their first two games of the season and still had success. In fact, in the previous six seasons, two of the eventual champions started out at least 0-2 (Carmen Sutera, 2003 & Drew Brees, 2006). But the fact that it has happened before doesn't make the feat any easier to accomplish.

36 teams have made the playoffs in the league's history. Four of them started out 0-2. Two of those actually lost a third game, and for Joe Harper, it was the last time he lost that season. But let's face it; what happened to Joe in 2006 was a freakish coincidence. His team was clearly dominant, but in those first three games, he just happened to play the ONE team that scored the most points in their given week. No one really believed his team wasn't good, just unlucky. For the four teams yet to win a game through the first two weeks, circumstances have not been so similar.

Still, the Wrong Answer, Beatubad, Texas Thundermonkeys and First or Last franchises can take that little slice of history and use it to obtain whatever kind of hope comes with it. But there's virtually no hope if they can't take a victory in week 3, especially for a league title. TT and FOL will be facing off this week, so we're already assured of seeing at least one winless team by the time Monday Night Football is over.

Week 3 Match-Ups

Djibouti Crust (1-1-0) vs Hybrids (2-0-0)
All-time Regular Season: 3-3-0
  • This game could very well be decided by some real-life injury decisions that likely wont be made until the last minute. Felix Jones (Djibouti Crust) could see an expanded role this week if Marion Barber (Texas Thundermonkeys) is held out. Additionally, Bryan Westbrook (Hybrids) is expected to be listed as 'Questionable' on the Eagles' injury report and could be losing quite a bit of playing time in this week's game against the Chiefs.
I Have a Bush (2-0-0) vs Beatubad (0-2-0)
All-time Regular Season: 2-2-0
  • This game can comfortably be projected to get this weeks 'Toyota Biggest Fantasy Blowout' award, in favor of I Have a Bush, who also won it last week with a 78.5 point victory over Tenacious D. I Have a Bush has the luxury of being led by Drew Brees and Marques Colston, who have combined to score 191.5 points in the first two weeks alone. Meanwhile, Beatubad looks set have one of the worst seasons in league history, with Laurence Maroney being the best running back on their roster.
Deion Found Jesus (1-1-0) vs The Undisputed (2-0-0)
All-time Regular Season: 4-2-0, DFJ
  • The Undisputed were lucky enough to get a record-breaking performance out of second-year running back, Chris Johnson, who managed to shatter RB fantasy records with 83 points in a single week. They are considerably lucky to be undefeated to this point, but still a quality team, reliant on Philip Rivers, Larry Fitzgerald and Chris Johnson to do most of the heavy lifting. Deion Found Jesus is hoping Tom Brady's dismal week two effort will not be repeated this week when the Patriots take on the Atlanta Falcons. They are hurting at running back (Darren Sproles and Michael Bush are starting this week), but you can never count a team out when they have Brady at QB.
I'm a Texan (1-1-0) vs Wrong Answer (0-2-0)
All-time Regular Season: 2-2-0
  • I'm a Texan finally saw their mostly-Houston Texan lineup strategy pay off with huge dividends last week as Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels all turned in monster fantasy numbers in week two. The real questions for owner Stephen Dinger is whether his team is going to play like they did in week one or week two. The answer to that question will likely determine the outcome of this game against defending champion Wrong Answer, who are the most probable winless team to end up in the playoffs. Wrong Answer has to face one more week without the contributions of suspended RB Marshawn Lynch, but they won't be looking past I'm a Texan this week. This match-up is particularly intriguing with the frequent back-and-forth banter that these two managers have taken part in against each other in the recent past.
Vince Young (2-0-0) vs Tenacious D (1-1-0)
All-time Regular Season: 3-1-0, VY
  • This game is especially intriguing to me, because Tenacious D are clearly trying to find some kind of identity with the players on their roster. Jay Cutler was easily one of the top five fantasy quarterbacks in the offseason until he was traded away to Chicago. Cutler is not going to repeat his superb 2008 season, but if he can increase his production just enough to give consistent quality numbers, Tenacious D might still be a title contender. But his opponent this week, Vince Young, has an absolutely lethal running back tandem (Adrian Peterson, Frank Gore) that makes them nearly impossible to beat every week. The Yahoo! projections have these two teams evenly matched, but Vince Young's questionable receiving corp is really the only factor that could give Tenacious D the edge.
Texas Thundermonkeys (0-2-0) vs First or Last (0-2-0)
All-time Regular Season: 1-0-0, TT
  • The Texas Thundermonkeys have made the playoffs more than any other LOTC franchise in history, but that success appears about ready to run dry in 2009. On paper, the Thundermonkeys should be good enough to contend, but they fell short in both of their first two games. Now, it's all or nothing. They need a win to have any real shot at making the playoffs for the sixth time in seven years, and it looks like they're going to have to do it without the legs of Marion Barber. First or Last seemed certain to avoid the last-place 2-11 finish they had in 2008 after making some seemingly great trades at the end of last season, as well as having a solid draft this year. But two weeks into 2009, manager Gavin Espinoza still can't seem to 'win at life'. If Matt Forte can get out of this apparent sophomore slump, First or Last might still be able to salvage their first winning season, but doing so from an 0-3 hole would make the achievement highly unlikely. Forget the playoffs: for the sake of their history, no one is facing more of a must-win situation than First or Last.
LOTC teams to make the playoffs after starting at least 0-2:

- Carmen Sutera, 2003, Phil Massine (No Longer in League)
  • Started: 0-2-0
  • Finished: 8-5-0
  • Final Outcome: 2003 League Champion
- Da Boyz, 2004, David Onyon (Now 'The Undisputed')
  • Started: 0-3-0
  • Finished: 8-6-0
  • Final Outcome: Lost 1st Round to eventual runner-up In Carr We Trust (Now 'I'm a Texan')
- Drew Brees, 2006, Joseph Harper (Now 'I Have a Bush')
  • Started: 0-3-0
  • Finished: 10-3-0
  • Final Outcome: 2006 League Champion
- Vince Young, 2008, Aaron Diehl
  • Started 0-2-0
  • Finished: 8-5-0
  • Final Outcome: Lost 1st Round to eventual runner-up Beatubad
**UPDATE**
As per Aaron's question, there have been a few teams to start 2-0 and miss the playoffs.

In the past six seasons, 19 teams have started 2-0 or better. Of those 19 teams, 15 went on to make the playoffs. The only person still in this league who has missed the playoffs after a 2-0 start is Ben (Beatubad), and he's done it twice. To be fair, the first time it happened was in 2003, which was the only season where we only had four playoff teams.

2003 - Beatubad
 Started: 3-0
 Finished: 7-6, 5th place

2004 - Garden Gnomes (Phil Massine, No Longer in League)
 Started: 2-0
 Finished: 6-8, 10th place

2005 - The Greatest (John Jemison, No Longer in League)
 Started: 2-0
 Finished: 4-9, 9th place

2007 - Beatubad
 Started: 4-0
 Finished: 6-7, 8th place

So now here's the fun stuff. If history is any kind of indicator of odds, you have a 78.9% chance of making the playoffs by starting 2-0. So one of you four teams are probably going to miss out. Starting out 3-0 (12 times in history) gives you an 83.3% chance of making the playoffs, and yet, a 4-0 start (7 times in history) barely improves your odds, at 85.7%.

Only twice has any LOTC team started 5-0 or better. Dinger did it in 2004, with In Carr We Trust. And the best start in league history was 6-0 by David, with The Undisputed in 2005. David finished out that regular season 3-4, but managed to get back on track in time for the playoffs to win the championship. So apparently, a 6-0 start gives you a 100% chance of winning the title.

But if you're Ben Weiss, a 3-0 start apparently gives you a 67% chance of missing the playoffs.

League History Corrected

I was finally able to completely correct all of the league history errors that resulted from me mixing up Paul's (The Tigers) and David's (Da Boyz) teams in 2004.

The overall records have been corrected, dropping Paul from 6th all-time to 9th, while David jumped up from 10th to 8th.

Also, the all-time head-to-head records have been corrected, which was the most tedious part of the fix. The most notable thing from this correction is that it means Paul has never beaten Ryan in the six match-ups they have had against each other, which makes their week 4 meeting all-the-more interesting.

League History

Monday, September 21, 2009

2-0 and 0-2 teams

After only two weeks played, it is too early to make any long-term predictions for the season. That said, if you are off to a 2-0 start, things are going to be a little easier for you. On the other hand, if you are 0-2, it is more of an uphill climb the rest of the way out. (However, I will not forget the 0-3 start I Have a Bush had a few seasons ago...then he went 10-0 the rest of the regular season and won the title.) Let's look at the undefeated and the winless thus far:

2-0

Vince Young, I Have a Bush, Deion Found Jesus*, The Undisputed*

0-2

BeatUBad, Wrong Answer, Thundermonkeys, FIRSTorLAST

___________________________________________________________________

*These are not set in stone, these are based on MNF predictions which I feel are pretty accurate.

Saturday, September 19, 2009

Trade News

'I Have a Bush' has traded WR Devery Henderson to the 'Vince Young' franchise for RB Mike Bell. The trade goes into effect on time for week 2 games.

Sunday, September 13, 2009

South Preview

At first glance, it might seem like Aaron Diehl is a safe bet to take his Vince Young team to a 2009 division title in the loaded South, but a closer look hints at another possible outcome.

Granted, a healthy season for his starting lineup would almost certainly give Diehl an easy road to one of the six playoff spots in the LOTC postseason but a division title could be a totally different story.

Joe Harper has Drew Brees, the 2008 fantasy point champion, quarterbacking I Have a Bush, as well as a healthy MJD in one of his running back slots. Jones-Drew is officially the man in Jacksonville, with the departure of Fred Taylor, and being THE man is an increasingly rare quality in today's NFL format of sharing the load in the backfield.

Of course it just so happens the other two South teams are full of running backs that don't have to share the load. Stephen Dinger (I'm a Texan) has a running back lineup that consists of Steve Slaton, Ryan Grant and Larry Johnson and Diehl boasts possibly the strongest tandem in Adrian Peterson and Frank Gore.

Both owners also boast having a quarterback to contend tremendously against I Have a Bush's Brees. With weapons like Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels, Matt Schaub is a fantasy dream, provided he doesn't suffer another late-hit injury. He could quite easily give Dinger some of the best quarterback numbers in 2009. Diehl is set to rely on the arm of Kurt Warner once again this season. Warner has the luxury of throwing the ball to one of the most lethal receiver tandems in NFL history, with Fitzgerald and Boldin on the outside. Even more exciting for Diehl is the fact that if anything happens to Warner, he won't lose much production at all with another star as a backup; Carson Palmer.

At receiver, I Have a Bush seems to have the most shaky starting lineup, though few fantasy managers would complain to have a healthy Marques Colston as their number one guy. It's the other guys who are a bit shaky. Hines Ward is always dependable, but can't be counted on to get strong numbers anymore, as he ages more and loses many throws to Santonio Holmes this season. After Colston and Ward, Harper employs three other Saints receivers and the expired hands of Muhsin Muhammad. This leaves a lot of doubt in the way of depth. He does have the benefit of starting Jeremy Shockey at tight end, but it is again, a moot point in the loaded South, where Dinger and Diehl start Owen Daniels and Chris Cooley, respectively. I'm a Texan has Andre Johnson, who is undoubtedly the best fantasy receiver whenever he plays, but Andre does tend to miss several games every year, which could prove costly. Dinger also starts Kevin Walter and Donnie Avery, who, if healthy, is likely to have a tremendous season in St. Louis with the departure of Torry Holt. Vince Young is solid, with Calvin Johnson, Anthony Gonzalez and Steve Breaston at receiver. I would even have given him the edge at the position except for the fact that he has literally no other receivers on the roster, which could pose a serious problem.

Prognosis: This division has three strong teams, with little weakness in their starting lineups. But this game is won with depth, especially at wide receiver and running back. Because of this, I give a slight edge to I'm a Texan, provided his Texan players can finally stay healthy for an entire season. Close behind him, if not finding a way to win the division outright, will be Diehl's Vince Young franchise. While I Have A Bush seems likely to finish last in the division, his team is strong enough to surprise and work its way into the playoff race, but if anything happens to any one of his stars (Brees, MJD or Colston), I don't see any chance of salvaging a strong season.

I'm a Texan and Vince Young will both make the playoffs.

West Division Preview

Now, let's take a look at the West Division.

Members: The Undisputed, FirstORLast, Hybrids

2008 Summary: Of these three teams, only the Hybrids made the playoffs last season. FirstOrLast, in their first season in the league, did back up their team name; unfortunately for them, not the position they had hoped for. The Undisputed finished in 10th. There is definitely room for improvement in the 2009-2010 season for the members of the LOTC West Division.

2009 Preview: This could be a very close divison. Each team has playoff potential. This division will fight for one of the two wild-card spots.

Hybrids

There should be a lot of solid performers on the Hybrids this season. Welker should continue to get a lot of receptions. Ochocinco is now the clear #1 and has Carson Palmer returning. Also, there are 3 good RBs on this team; a characteristic that most teams do not have. Westbrook, Williams, and Portis will all produce numbers....IF healthy. Portis and Westbrook each have some injury risk. However, the Hybrids have a deep bench, so if any injury does occur, they should be ok. Oh yeah, if DeAngelo Williams somehow remains the fantasy freak that he was for the second half of last season...look out. The one question for this team, and it is an important question, is this: what numbers will McNabb put up this season? Will Vick steal any of his thunder? Will he be healthy for a consecutive season? The Hybrids are poised to have a good season, but if McNabb does not have a good year, that will offset some of the other positives this team will have.

The Undisputed

There are two strong areas for this team: Philip Rivers and the receiver positions. Fitzgerald is the superstar WR, and I think that Edwards, Driver, Coles, and Holt will all be solid contributors at the WR position. Jason Witten will remain in the top group of tight ends this year. Unfortunately for the Undisputed, the RB position is not very strong. Chris Johnson is a stud, but will have some TDs poached by Lendale White, and White will take a decent amount of handoffs as well. But, the Titans run the ball A LOT, so Johnson will still put up good numbers. However, Jospeh Addai and Jamal Lewis are no sure things. The Undisputed will need a suprise year from one of these RBs in order to make the playoffs this year.

FIRSTorLAST

Well, let's just say that FIRSTorLAST will not be in either first....or last...this season. Michael Turner and Matt Forte will put up very good numbers for this team. I doubt that both of these backs will be quite as strong as last season, but they are still two of the best RBs in the league. Matt Ryan should continue to develop and put up better than average numbers. He is not a superstar, but a solid option at QB. The fate of this team depends on how well the rest of the offensive positions perform. TJ whosyomamma will do well. If he does REALLY well, that will relieve some of the pressure that is on Berrian, Hixon, and rookie Knowshon Moreno. Berrian did not play this preseason, Hixon has to find out where exactly he fits in the Giant offense sans Plax, and Moreno is a rookie in the fantasy-frustrating backfield of the Broncos. Wait, I almost forgot about possibly the best TE in the game, Antonio Gates. He should put forth another Gates-like season and will provide no worries for the manager.

Playoff Prediction: Division winner Hybrids will make the playoffs again this year; McNabb will put up good enough numbers to complement the other contributors on this team. Both FIRSTorLAST and the Undisputed will need to have one or two things go their way to make the playoffs. I feel that the second place team will fight for one of the wild-card spots. This team will be FIRSTorLAST, showing a big improvement from last season. The Undisputed will compete, but will finish the division in 3rd.






Saturday, September 12, 2009

East Division Preview

"The temperature outside is 74 degrees with a slight wind out of the southeast. Please keep your seat belts securely fastened until we have connected with the jetway and the pilot has turned off the seat belt sign. We know you have many choices when you fly; thank you for flying with us today. And welcome to..."

We have arrived. All our bags came in nicely at the baggage claim (except yours... they searched yours, and your undies are hanging out from where they didn't really zip it back up). Rental car checked out nicely; they even upgraded us. And we're all checked in at the hotel. We're here. The time has come. No more waiting.

Let's do this.

After a long, grueling off-season filled with suspensions and reinstatements, retirements and unretirements, trades and free-agent signings, the NFL season is now. Which means Fantasy Football for the League of the Crust has already begun. But, before all the rip-off trades get offered and the league point leaders get screwed out of wins (who's bitter?), I wanted to do a preview of the East division. So here it goes.

Thundermonkeys R Go!
JMB had one of the more solid lineups last year, and this year it shouldn't be much different. Aaron Rodgers is going to be one of the 5 best fantasy QBs this year, and Greg Jennings is only going to get better. The team did take a major blow when Terrel Owens was signed by the Buffalo Bills, relegating Lee Evans to a number 2 WR. Essentially, it's going to be impossible for both of those wide outs to have a huge day on the same week. But, they are both stud receivers, and with some insecurity at the RB position, it looks as though the Bills may turn to the air for offensive production. Everyone knows that both Marion Barber and Brandon Jacobs are going to produce, and Matt Ryan is going to love his new security blanket in Tony Gonzales. And, if for some reason they don't hit it off, Visanthe Shiancoe is going to make a killing off Brett Favre. He's poised for a breakout year. The Thundermokeys biggest challenge is going to come when his backups are forced to play, either via bye week or injury. There's not really anyone worth putting into a starting lineup on the bench, and because of that, this team will lose some games it probably should win.

Djibouti Crust
Jorge's team has a really interesting makeup. There are a lot of guys that are going to be consistent point factories, but not many that are going to wow us with their massive performances. Romo's career is at a crossroads, and he should step up to the plate this year, and having a whole off-season with new number 1 Roy Williams should be a big help (to Romo, Williams, the Cowboys, and The Crust). Dwayne Bowe is hoping that the Chiefs didn't jump the gun on Cassell, a move that will be scrutinized throughout the season, and the Chargers are hoping for another 1,000+ yards out of Vincent Jackson. Djibouti Crust's weakest position group is that of Running Back. While led by the sure-fire Pierre Thomas (although starting the season injured is never a good sign), the other backs are question marks. Ced Benson is gearing up for his last hurrah, hoping to make the splash that some expected at the beginning of his career, and Felix Jones is trying to stay healthy so he does make that impact that he showed he could last year. The sleeper of this team might be TE Dustin Keller. Superstar rookie QBs and solid running games can make tight ends look really good, and Keller is a good enough player to capitalize on an opportunity like this one. Oh, and mark my words: Jorge will get a victory this year solely on the backs of the best defense in the NFL, the Minnesota Vikings. Overall, if a few of Jorge's question marks turn into exclamation points, Djibouti Crust could be tough to beat.

Deion Found Jesus
Robby G is poised to score the most points via the pass than any other team in the League of the Crust this season. Tom Brady is back and his knee looks healthy. He's not going to throw 50 TDs again, but he should be in the 40s. And, while I'm glad that I am not the proud owner of one Brandon Marshall simply because it is hard to replace the arm of his former QB, Jake Cutler, it would be a mistake to deny his immense talent. Marshall isn't the only 1200-yard receiver on DFJ that lost his passer in the off-season either. Antonio Bryant is coming off of a breakout year, and expecting one of the 19 Buccaneer QBs to just get the ball somewhere close to him. Also, there's Reggie Wayne. Enough said. Even Chris Henry should have a solid (if not stellar) year. Carson is back in action, and Henry has looked good in camp and the pre-season. However, Robby is going to struggle mightily to score points on the ground. LT is always good for points, as long as he can stay on the field, which isn't a guarantee. I am, however, concerned that Darren Sproles, the other back on the Bolts, is also going to be starting opening day for DFJ. While he will get a point for every hand-off the Chargers run this year, he has handicapped himself by nearly guaranteeing not having a day when both RBs are stars. And if either goes down, he has no one to pick up the pieces.

Prediction
When the season comes to a close after week 13, the credits will roll in the order they appeared.

Thundermonkeys are going to lead this division with great QB play and two of the best RBs in the league. Greg Jennings is going to show that he, along with Rodgers, are undervalued.

Djibouti Crust will finish second through surprise efforts on the parts of Romo, R. Williams, and Benson. All three are going to out-perform their expectations, and the rest of his lineup is going to keep him consistently competitive.

That relegates Deion Found Jesus to last in the division, but only by a nose. The lack of any real running backs on any team not playing in SoCal is going to be his demise. Don't get me wrong, he's gonna light a few people up, and may even finish this season with the highest single week score, but any week where the Chargers play a team with good run defense, it's going to be tough to win.


So, there you have it. The East division in (really long) nutshell. Now please stow all tray tables and place seat backs in the upright and locked position, because we're taking off. And it might be a bumpy ride.

Friday, September 11, 2009

North Division Preview

With the new NFL season just starting, let's take a look at the League of the Crust divisions.

North Division

Members - Tenacious D, Beatubad, Wrong Answer.

2008 Summary: Each of these three teams made the playoffs last year. This is the only division that can claim that. Wrong Answer is the defending champion, and had the best W-L record last year. Tenacious D finished only 1 game above .500 last season, but was #1 in points. Beatubad snuck into the playoffs in 6th place, but then made a run to the finals and finished 2nd to Wrong Answer. Needless to say, the North Division's teams had strong seasons last year.

2009 Preview: First place, Tenacious D. Cutler should have another strong year in Chicago, Moss has Brady throwing to him, Roddy White poised to have another very strong year, and Steven Jackson is still a hoss. Also, Thomas Jones should benefit from a NY Jets offense that will run the ball a lot since rookie Mark Sanchez is the starting QB. The points will still be there this year for Tenacious D, but this year they will have a little more luck with the wins. Second place, Beatubad. This team is a mix of sure things and question marks. Peyton Manning will put up good numbers. Steve Smith, as long as he is healthy, will put up good numbers. Beatubad should have solid contributors in Eddie Royal and red-zone threat TE John Carlson. However, there are big question marks at the rest of the offensive positions. A rookie RB, a RB on a committee, and two mediocre at best WRs. Since this team has the elder Manning, and some strong WRs, I have giving them the slight edge to take 2nd place in the division. Third place, Wrong Answer. I am sure I will be wrong about this, as Wrong Answer managed to have the 2nd fewest points scored of the playoff teams last year, but had the most wins, and won the title. But, there are just too many questions for me to go on record predicting a great season for this team. The younger Manning, Eli, is just not a strong fantasy QB, and he is still without Plaxico Burress. Boldin and Jackson should put up good numbers at the WR position for Wrong Answer. Dallas Clark will remain a favored target for Peyton Manning and will contribute at the TE position. Similar to Beatubad, there are uncertainties at the RB position and flex position. I think the 2nd and 3rd place team in this division are facing similar issues, but I give the advantage to the team with the better Manning at QB.

Playoff Outlook: Only the division winner will make the playoffs this year.

Thursday, August 6, 2009

Update: Rivalry Week

Working the schedule wouldn't allow me to set up the rivalry week and yet keep the formula as it should be (play everyone in the league once and twice against division foes), so I just set up the schedule properly and set 'rivalry week' for week 13. Hopefully, it will give some kind of value to the end of the regular season.

Commissioner's Note - Rivalry Week and Division Changes

Ok, so I basically decided to go ahead and assign the rivalry week match-ups myself. For one thing, I didn't get everyone's preferences and for another, it's easier this way. I made the decisions by finding a way to make everyone's match-up be against someone with whom their all-time record was either tied or just one game apart. The one exception is JMB vs Tim, where Tim holds the all-time record, 6-3-0. But it works out that way anyway, because a) they're in-laws and b) their nine games against each other is tied for the most head-to-head meetings of anyone else in the league.

Most of you don't quite have a 'rivalry' with your match-up, but it'll develop over time.

First or Last vs Deion Found Jesus
1-1-0 Regular Season
1-1-0 All-time

I Have a Bush vs Beatubad
2-2-0 Regular Season
3-2-0 All-time [I Have a Bush]

Vince Young vs Djibouti Crust
2-1-0 Regular Season [Djibouti Crust]
2-2-0 All-time

The Undisputed vs Tenacious D
4-3-0 Regular Season [Tenacious D]
4-4-0 All-time

I'm a Texan vs Wrong Answer
2-2-0 Regular Season
3-2-0 All-time [I'm a Texan]

Texas Thundermonkeys vs Hybrids
4-2-0 Regular Season [Hybrids]
6-3-0 All-time [Hybrids]

Lastly, I decided to go ahead and split the league into four divisions of three teams. One, I like the format better. Two, it makes it much easier to set the 13-game schedule (one game against every team in the league and two against your division foes). So here's how the division make-up now.

NORTH
  • Wrong Answer
  • Tenacious D
  • I Have a Bush
SOUTH
  • Beatubad
  • Vince Young
  • The Undisputed
EAST
  • Texas Thundermonkeys
  • Deion Found Jesus
  • Djibouti Crust
WEST
  • Hybrids
  • I'm a Texan
  • First or Last
The other two teams in your divisions will be the team you play twice every season. Get to know them.

Tuesday, July 14, 2009

Here Comes 2009 - Starting a 7th Season

As every new NFL season comes around and I get the opportunity to add a year to the existence of the league, I become more and more proud. I can certainly say that when I went around asking some friends if they wanted to join my fantasy league in 2003, I had no idea that I would be welcoming many of the same people back for a seventh go-round in 2009. But I am, and it's the best league around and I'm glad to have you all back.

That's right. Twelve out of twelve managers are coming back for this season. A first for the LOTC. And best of all, it looks like it's a permanent league make-up. Twelve competitors, committed to winning the league.

I'd like to take a few minutes now to go over all of the changes that you will be seeing this year, both in our league constitution and on the yahoo fantasy football experience.

INJURED RESERVE

As voted on by our league members, we have instituted an Injured Reserve option for the 2009 season. This change became necessary after we agreed to convert the league to a dynasty format last season. I do need to address a possible issue here. This year, when I was going over the league settings, I noticed that yahoo had added an IR slot option to rosters. I went ahead and included it in the settings, but I don't know if yahoo has the same standard requirements for using the slot. I have looked all over their info pages, checked the message boards and even sent an email to them to try to get some information on the position, but I've heard nothing back yet. I'm assuming that the IR slot remains empty until a player goes on IR in real life, which would be ideal. However, I am wary of the possibility that you might be able to place any injured player in that spot on any given week to add an open slot to pick up a FA. If this is the case, I trust all of my managers will not use the slot for that purpose, right?

FLEX POSITION

2009 marks the return of the flex position to our rosters. This year, yahoo expanded the flex position designation, allowing commissioners to include TEs in the mix. So our flex position can be a RB, WR or a TE if you so choose (instead of the traditional RB/WR limitation).

DIVISIONS

This is a bit of a downer for me. As some of you might recall, I mentioned last season that my first experience playing fantasy football involved playing in divisions, which I had loved. I added that my experience had been four divisions of three teams and yahoo only allowed two divisions. Well, lo and behold, I was updating the settings for this season and yahoo had expanded the options to allow up to four divisions. If I had known this was going to happen, I would have insisted we break up the league into four divisions, but I didn't. So instead, we're broken into two divisions, which is still an improvement in my opinion. For a reminder of the layout of the new divisions, refer to the league constitution.

WAIVERS

In what turned out to be the closest vote amongst the proposed changes, bringing back a 24-hour waiver barely managed to force it's way back into our league settings. Yahoo has incorporated an additional option in waivers that I will cover later on, called budgeting. Since it was not discussed last season, I could not incorporate it this year anyway, but I think it is something we should seriously consider adding to the settings next season. For now, waiver position will be based on a permanently rolling list. Waiver priority is randomly assigned at first and then, as you pick up a player on waivers, you move to the back of the line.

THE YAHOO EXPERIENCE

I'm only going to cover the changes that yahoo made that will affect/be-of-use to us this season. Other changes in settings options that we could possibly incorporate in 2010 will be discussed later.
  • Improved StatTracker - Reportedly, the stat tracker will be even more accurate in real-time this season and will also include a chat feauture so that if you and your opponent are following at the same time, you can actually chat/trash-talk about the games through the application.
  • Custom Schedules - Im going to love this because it actually allows the commissioner to set a 'rivalry week' into the schedule to intensify the competition. So I would appreciate you guys telling me who you would prefer to play during the rivalry week so that I can customize the schedule as soon as possible. Not everyone will have a 'rivalry' but one can develop by playing the same person in the same week every year. I know Dinger probably wants to play me, but we'll have to see.....
  • Mock Drafts - You can now do as many mock drafts as you would like before your actual draft to plan out your draft strategy ahead of time.
More to come as the draft gets closer. Thank you all for joining. And please do start to adjust to checking this blog once a week (at least when you sign on to set your starting lineups). As time passes and I get used to managing this blog, more and more useful information will be posted on this page on a regular basis.

Go Cowboys!

Friday, April 3, 2009

Breaking News on Burress

I must first concede that my only source on this at the moment is a tweet from ESPN Dallas 103.3's popular local radio show, Galloway and Company. It appears the Giants have released Plaxico Burress (First or Last).

This would make sense, considering the report that the Giants are currently negotiating terms on a possible trade with the Cleveland Browns for Braylon Edwards.

More to come as the news develops.

UPDATE

This is now confirmed by ESPN and Footballoutsiders.com.

More info on the reports of Giants' interest in Braylon Edwards.

Cutting through the NFC North like fine 'Cutler'-y

I believe we can all finally stop everything for a moment and let out a collective sigh of relief.

*SIGH*

It is finally over. I think there are a thousand things we could say about this trade that sends Jay Cutler (Tenacious D) from Denver to Chicago for several valuable draft picks. I'm less inclined to try to figure out who won in the transaction, because both teams gained something and both lost something. Only time will tell who made the right decision. But be certain of this: one of these teams just made a huge mistake.

I am just glad it's over.

So give credit to the Denver Broncos. The longer it took for them to get rid of Cutler, the lower the asking price would have become. Not to mention, the unrest and division within the locker room would have grown too great to overcome. Give credit to Chicago as well. The Bears haven't had a pro-bowl QB under center since Jim McMahon in 1985. Now, they've got Cutler, a pro-bowler who hasn't even reached his full potential yet.

Now let's be realistic. This blog might be dedicated to the LOTC, but it would be foolish to not consider the impact that this trade has on the NFL first.

The Broncos gave up a stud franchise quarterback. No team can do that without getting set back at least a year or two. But they did get Kyle Orton, who isn't getting enough credit for his growth over the last couple of years. People tend to forget before his injury against Detroit last season, Orton had thrown for 1669 yards, 10 TDs and only 4 interceptions. And this was with Devin Hester and Brandon Lloyd catching the passes! Now, he's going to be throwing to Brandon Marshall (Deion Found Jesus) and Eddie Royal (Beatubad). Granted, Denver has virtually no running game anymore and the o-line has a lot of questions, but with four 1st-round draft picks over the next two years, those questions can certainly be answered. Still, most experienced NFL coaches would tell you that when you have a sure thing at QB, there is no price you can put on that kind of security. This is especially true when you replace him with draft picks, an unknown commodity. So we're going to find out very soon, just how much Josh McDaniels has learned from Bill Bellichick. Keep in mind, the Broncos are still in the dreadful AFC West, playing twice a year against San Diego, Oakland and Kansas City. Even with a major downgrade at QB, the division is still winnable.

The Bears might very well have just picked up the best quarterback in the long history of their franchise. The only problem is Cutler REALLY needs to be exactly THAT (the best in their history) in order for the cost to be worth it. Chicago has essentially mortgaged its future on Cutler. If it pays off, the Super Bowl is within reach once again. If not? Well, they're screwed for another decade. Does this change the fate of the NFC North? Consider the non-statistical benefit of having Cutler in Chicago.

Matt Williamson of Scouts Inc. says it best.

"You need a big, strong-armed guy to cut through the wind and the elements. I know it sounds simple, but the average fan tends to overlook that. Whenever you're shopping for a quarterback to play in Chicago, New York, Cleveland or somewhere like that, you better have a cannon and throw a spiral that can cut the wind. Cutler can do that in a big way. The defense has to guard the whole field, and that hasn't always been the case in the past 10 years or so in Chicago. Arm strength like that can make a lot of other problems go away."
Additionally, Jay Cutler is now going to be throwing the ball to a familiar face. Earl Bennett, who didn't catch a single pass in his rookie season last year, played for Vanderbilt in Cutler's last season for the university. Bennett is expected to compete for the starting job opposite of Devin Hester in 2009, and having best friend Jay Cutler under center can only make that a greater possiblity.

Enough of that now.......

How does this affect the LOTC?

The most obvious impact will be on Tenacious D, since Manager Ryan Hennesy was counting on Jay Cutler to be his franchise fantasy quarterback for the foreseeable future (alliteration, anyone?). Cutler is losing some quality weapons and is heading to a city whose team is historically formatted as a run-first team, and this one is no exception. Second-year RB Matt Forte (First or Last) emerged as a star in his rookie season and considering the weapons the Bears have at receiver, one would have to think they aren't going to become a passing team, at least not right now. In 2008, Cutler was 2nd in the LOTC with 49.5 FPPG. Kyle Orton was 20th, with 33.9 FPPG. While Cutler will likely have more production than Orton did with the same weapons, it would be naive to think Cutler will remain a top-5 fantasy QB until the Bears equip him with a stud receiver.

When asked if he was concerned with Cutler's destination, Hennesy answered, "I feel as though he would have been better, fantasy-wise staying with Denver, but with the signing of Pace and hopefully picking up a receiver in the draft, it could be a really positive experience."

Elsewhere around the league, Cutler's departure significantly impacts the fantasy value of Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal, both whom were designated keepers last year.

Marshall (25.7 FPPG, 5th LOTC) was arguably the best receiver on DFJ Manager Robby Grunwald's roster. But with an impending suspension looming over his head, along with the departure of Jay Cutler, that value is quickly dissipating. The good news for Grunwald is that he had some good foresight, designating two other quality receivers (Antonio Bryant and Reggie Wayne) as keepers at the end of the '08 season.

Cutler's absence doesn't seem to concern the DFJ manager at all.

"Brandon Marshall is a playmaker, no matter who is at QB," Grunwald said. "Kyle Orton is gonna blow it up."

Eddie Royal (24.9 FPPG, 6th LOTC) had a tremendous rookie season in 2008, particularly during Marshall's suspension. But no amount of success can change the fact that he is now the number two receiver on a team with no running game that just lost its star quarterback. This change probably drops Royal's fantasy value down all the way to a third option, and that is in a best-case scenario.

BEAT Owner/Manager Ben Weiss had simply this to say about Royal's likely fantasy decline.

"There isn't much I can do about it now."

On a more positive note, Cutler's arrival in Chicago is a definite plus to TE Greg Olsen (Hybrids) and RB Matt Forte. Neither Owner/Manager of these players was available for comment.

Also Noteworthy:

  • Cutler's entire family, including Cutler, has been a hardcore Bear-fan family for Cutler's entire life.
  • Cutler lost his only game in Chicago, an OT loss in 2007. It was by no fault of Cutler's though. He threw for over 300 yards in the game and Denver lost primarily thanks to Devin Hester's two returns for touchdowns.
  • Chicago's offensive coordinator, Ron Turner, was the head coach at the University of Illinois when Cutler was in high school. Cutler had committed to Illinois until Turner rescinded the scholarship at the last minute, forcing Cutler to scramble for another school to play for, Vanderbilt emerging as the beneficiary. One has to wonder if Cutler is still whining about that too.

Wednesday, April 1, 2009

Uncertainty ahead for Cutler and Burress

As any sports fan who even breathes would know by now, the Denver Broncos announced through an email last night that they were officially going to begin shopping Jay Cutler (Tenacious D). Blockbuster trades of this magnitude are delightfully rare in today's NFL, and this one could be one of the most impacting transactions in league history. We all (except the Broncos, apparently) knew this was the likely outcome, but now that it is officially inevitable, one can't help but twitch with excitement at the thought.

Cutler's final destination could have dramatic impact on the League of the Crust, but especially for Owner/Manager Ryan Hennesy's Tenacious D. After 4500 yards and 27 TDs in '08, Hennesy had to be looking forward to a 2009 season with Cutler. But a trade to the wrong team could certainly serve as a setback for their hopes of returning to the playoffs for a third straight season. As many as ten teams are reportedly in the runnings for Cutler, including the Jets, Bears, Vikings, Browns, Buccaneers, Lions and Redskins.

When asked if he had a preference, Hennesy said, "I would say the ideal situation for me would be Cutler going to Washington. They already have a solid running game and great weapons to throw the ball to. But their defense isn't great, so he'll have to be scoring points. I would also be happy if he went to New York [Jets] or Minnesota."

In other news, First or Last's Owner/Manager Gavin Espinoza is going to be facing some troubles of his own as more develops in the gun case against Plaxico Burress. Despite his best attempts to avoid jail time, it seems almost certain the star Giant's receiver will have to spend at least 6 months behind bars. Regardless of what happens (sentencing-wise), there is zero chance he will be playing the first half of the 2009 season, and that's a best-case scenario.

First or Last, who finished dead last in the LOTC last year with a 2-11 record, is going to be facing some certain receiver trouble in '09. With Burress likely out for the season, Bernard Berrian facing an uncertain QB situation in Minnesota and an aging TJ Houshmandzadeh playing for a new team, Espinoza will probably need to pick a receiver with the first overall pick in the 2009 draft.

Espinoza was unavailable for comment.

Wednesday, March 25, 2009

Quick Updates

Due to the madness of March, I'm paying slightly less attention to the goings-on of the NFL, but as I caught up on all my blogs this morning, I noticed some reports that intrigued me.

Convicted drug dealer Styles Beckles, who was reportedly tied to Denver Broncos RB Correll Buckhalter in some way, has denied talking about or selling any drugs to Buckhalter. It's good news for Buckhalter, who can now focus on competing for the starting job.

It's not relevant to football, but I just found this absolutely fascinating. Two identical twins were acquitted of all charges in a remarkable jewelry heist because the DNA evidence found at the scene could not be exclusively linked to either one of them. It's the perfect crime, thanks to the judicial system.

Plaxico Burress has a court hearing coming up next week, which will give us all a better idea of the star receiver's future with the Giants and the NFL, as well as the First or Last Franchise. Gavin Espinoza was active in trades near the end of last season, and one of these moves brought Burress over from Vince Young. At this point, Burress is looking at a long probation or up to 3 1/2 years in prison.

Taking a moment to acknowledge Jerry Jone's absurdity, the Cowboys' owner seems to think Miles Austin is the second-coming of TO, according to ESPN's Matt Mosley.

In case you're interested, the NFL has released the official draft order for the 2009 event. As if they haven't been good enough at rebuilding over the years, the Patriots have six picks in the first 97.

I'm glad somebody else beside me is pointing out the fact that it's only Texan fans that think there's a rivalry between them and the Cowboys. The Governor's Cup game is going to be taking a year off and resuming in 2010.

Great news for anybody (like myself) that hasn't been able to get DirecTV for various reasons (landlords and buildings facing the wrong way). In 2012, Sunday Ticket will available via Broadband. Of course, by then, I'll probably live somewhere where I can get a dish.....

More LOTC-relevant stuff is sure to come in the next week or so.......

Thursday, March 19, 2009

We interrupt the madness.....

The NFL never stops moving, not even for the big dance, which tipped off today and, as of this point, hasn't had any exceptionally riveting or interesting games. American University might change that......

Just wanted to write a quick post updating the three of you (I have faith there will be more. A voice told me, "If you build it, they will come.") on some of today's stirrings around the league.

Guess who's first.......

After former Georgia QB Matt Stafford 'blew away' all the scouts today, word has it Jay Cutler (Tenacious D) is less likely to end up in Detroit. In fact, it is seeming all the more possible that he could land in New York with the Jets. Ironically, the Jets' hopes of acquiring Cutler could potentially hinge on former (fired) head coach Eric Mangini, who is now running things in Cleveland.

Of course, Eric Mangini obviously has some much larger fish to fry right now, with reports now surfacing that oft-inured #2 WR Donte Stallworth was intoxicated during the car accident last week that resulted in the death of a pedestrian. After letting go of Kellen Winslow (Deion Found Jesus) in the offseason and Donte Stallworth facing some possible manslaughter charges, the Cleveland Browns' respectable passing game is on the verge of extinction. This would make a three-way trade with Denver and New York [Jets], which would bring some valuable draft picks to Cleveland even more beneficial for all parties.

Josh McDaniel's start as head coach in Denver has got to be one of the worst in history. With the franchise player demanding a trade, he's already facing a nearly impossible task in finding a potential replacement to follow Cutler's stellar season of over 4500 pass yards and 27 TDs. Now, reports are surfacing that recently signed RB Correll Buckhalter is involved with an alleged drug dealer in Philadelphia who is currently standing trial. Buckhalter just signed a 4 year, $10 million deal and was expected to challenge for the starting job. If there ends up being any substance to the allegations, Buckhalter will most certainly be facing a suspension, in which case, McDaniel would have to consider some other options. Maybe Cutler wants to get out for more reasons than just his head coach.........

Not all the news in the NFL is depressing.

Matt Cassel (Wrong Answer) has got to be happy about everything that is going on with his new team. Things were already looking up in KC, but now with the new signing of veteran receiver Bobby Engram, Cassel becomes an even greater passing threat next season.

Kerry Collins isn't fooling anyone into thinking he would be a No. 1 fantasy quarterback, but the fact that he is going into the upcoming season as the sure-fire starter in Tennessee could significantly elevate the fantasy value of favorite receiver Justin Gage. Gage isn't really a stud, but when Kerry Collins is throwing the ball, Gage's numbers double in nearly every statistical category. At the very least, Gage could be a quality third receiver on anybody's roster.

Wednesday, March 18, 2009

Kurt Warner has A=Rod surgery

From ESPN...

The Cardinals said that the operation to repair a torn labrum and "clean up some loose fragments" was performed Tuesday by Dr. Marc Philippon at the Steadman Hawkins Clinic in Vail, Colo.
Philippon, who also operated on New York Yankees slugger Alex Rodriguez's hip, said the surgery went well and Warner's range of motion with the hip immediately improved.
"Everything went well and I'm feeling great," Warner said in a statement released by the team Wednesday. "I began rehab on a stationary bike just a few hours after surgery and then a couple of more times today."
Warner played with the injury last season, starting all 20 games in the Cardinals' run to the Super Bowl.
"Although I could have continued to play with it, I felt this was the best for short-term success on the field as well as long-term comfort off the field," he said. "I am ready to go back to work and back to normal so we can build on what we accomplished last season."
Warner is expected to sit out the team's minicamp May 1-3 but hopes to be ready for voluntary team workouts that begin May 19.


This obviously interests Aaron because Kurt Warner is his starting quarterback. However, it looks as if next season, Warner should at least be as healthy as last year, if not improved. This should not really concern the Vince Young franchise.

Lynch to be latest victim of Goodell's mob

Multiple sources predict a near certain suspension for Marshawn Lynch (Wrong Answer) following his guilty plea to a misdemeanor weapon's charge. We know Commissioner Roger Goodell shares a similar view point towards guns as deer in Pennsylvania; anytime one creeps up, he gets skittish. This incident is compounded by Lynch's plea of guilty to traffic violations less than a year ago.

The length of the suspension is the only aspect of this incident being debated. CBSsports.com reports that sources close to the situation claim to be looking towards a one-game suspension, while The Professor, John Clayton, suggests the report could be as long as four weeks. Lynch (and his entourage of lawyers and Buffalo Bills team personnell) met with the commissioner on Tuesday.

Goodell's final decision regarding the length of the suspension given to the first round draft pick will be announced before the beginning of the preseason.

Marshawn Lynch's suspension could have significant impact on Wrong Answer!'s chances to win the championship in LOTC for the second consecutive year. Lynch was Paul Ferguson's leading scorer at the RB position in 2008 with 409 points, and with the addition of the flex position in 2009, his absence during the suspension will be magnified. However, the RB's overall numbers may decline this coming season. In anticipation of Lynch's possible suspension, Buffalo has brought in Kevin Jones and DeShaun Foster for visits and will almost certainly sign one of them. And, it would seem that either RB would not be hired simply for 1-4 games.


Also, some new information has surfaced in the stalking of Broncos QB Jay Cutler: Washington Redskins not interested, NY Jets should go hard after Cutler.

What's gonna happen with Cutler?

Now that Jay Cutler has decided to make absolutely no effort to kiss and make-up with new head coach Josh McDaniel, it's really hard to imagine the Denver Broncos being too stubborn to let him go. I mean, how many times have you seen NFL teams succeed when the head coach and star QB hated each other like this?

The real question for the LOTC is, "How does this affect Tenacious D?"

With a player of Cutler's caliber, practically every team that needs even the slightest bit of help at QB is going to be rumored to have interest. Some of the more prominent teams in the discussion are the Detroit Lions, Washington Redskins, San Francisco 49ers and oddly enough, the Cleveland Browns.

While all four of those teams (49ers less so than the others) have at least one quality receiver on the roster, Detroit's Calvin Johnson (Vince Young) is the only one who could even breathe the same air as Brandon Marshall (Deion Found Jesus) in Denver. So what would moving Cutler do to his current fantasy value? Should Ryan Hennesy be worried?

Also briefly rumored: Tennessee Titans, Carolina Panthers, Chicago Bears, Houston Texans.

ESPN Video on Cutler.

Monday, March 16, 2009

News to date.....

Ok, so here's the changes we know of that have directly affected the keeper designations to this point.

Matt Cassell (Wrong Answer) traded to Kansas City:

With Matt Cassell's departure from New England into the starting seat at Kansas City, Paul Ferguson is looking much wiser having spent his QB designation on the former Brady back-up. You've got to think that with the great draft the Chiefs had last year, the acquisition of Cassell and the hiring of Bellichick-baby Scott Pioli, Kansas City could be this year's Atlanta Falcons. Regardless of what it means for their real season, one thing is certain. With defenses having to respect/fear the passing game more, Larry Johnson (should he stay out of trouble) could get back to the production he once had only a couple of years ago. Furthermore, the Crust and Thundermonkeys must certainly be feeling better about having Dwayne Bowe and Tony Gonzalez, respectively, on their rosters.

Texas Thundermonkeys

JMB might have something to be happy about with Tony Gonzalez, but there's plenty to frown over among his keepers as well. TO's release (all Cowboy fans breathe relief) is a telling sign that the receiver is undoubtedly past his days as a top-10 receiver. Signing with Buffalo doesn't help much either. The Bills are a rush-first team and TO should expect 10-15 fewer pass attempts per game than what he saw in Dallas. On top of that, the Bills already have a number one receiver and a great deep threat with whom they are very happy (Lee Evans). Then comes the matter of Matt Jones, the other troubled receiver (JMB the fantasy equivalent of Jerry Jones?) on his roster. Jones was just released by the Jags last week and is unlikely to find another home before the start of the season. And even if he does manage to find a team to sign with (beware Cowboy fans), he's almost certainly facing a suspension for at least the first four games of the season, if not the entire year.

My move if I was in JMB's shoes? Part ways with Matt Jones as soon as the fantasy draft is over. And think about exercising that redshirt option with Robert Meachem, even though the Saints signed an extension with Devery Henderson.

Kellen Winslow (Deion Found Jesus) to Tampa Bay:

Despite his tremendous production in two of the last three seasons, it was definitely time for the Browns and Winslow to go separate ways. Justified or not, Winslow rubbed the wrong people the wrong way last season when he mouthed off over the failure of management to get control over the staph infection problem that seemed to hit Cleveland worse than any other team. Winslow is wildly talented and shouldn't be affected negatively by the change of scenery. Other than the questionable situation at QB (any different from what he had at the old place), he should feel right at home in TB. One guy this could hurt is Braylon Edwards, who had already dropped off majorly from a stellar season in 2007. If he was hoping to return to his old form, he's gonna have to do it without another quality receiving threat to distract the defense.

TJ Houshmandzadeh (First or Last) to Seattle

This is great news from Matt Hasselbeck's point of view. Houshmandzadeh is the best receiver Hasselbeck has ever had the luxury of throwing the ball to, so he certainly has something to look forward to in 2009. I would look for Houshmandzadeh's reception count to go down by 10-15, but yards and TDs should improve. As far as what this means for Chad Johnson (Hybrids) in terms of production, that's just a matter of wait-and-see. He's gonna miss having such a viable threat on the opposite side, but he also had several pro-bowl seasons serving as the only quality receiver on the team before the emergence of Houshmandzadeh.

Keeper Designations

Vince Young

QB - Kurt Warner - ARI
WR - Calvin Johnson - DET
WR - Kevin Curtis - PHI
RB - Adrian Peterson - MIN
TE - Chris Cooley - WAS
K/DEF - Rob Bironas - TEN
MC - Carson Palmer - QB - CIN
MC - Frank Gore - RB - SF
RS - Joe Flacco - QB - BAL

Wrong Answer

QB - Matt Cassel - NE (Traded to KC)
WR - Anquan Boldin - ARI
WR - Desean Jackson - PHI
RB - Reggie Bush - NO
TE - Dallas Clark - IND
K/DEF - Tennessee Titans
MC - Marshawn Lynch - RB - BUF
MC - Darren McFadden - RB - OAK
RS - Andre Caldwell - WR - CIN

Texas Thundermonkeys


QB - Aaron Rogers - GB
WR - Greg Jennings - GB
WR - Terrell Owens - DAL (FA to BUF)
RB - Marion Barber - DAL
TE - Tony Gonzalez - KC
K/DEF - New York Giants
MC - Brandon Jacobs - RB - NYG
MC - Matt Jones - WR - JAX (Released)
RS - Robert Meachem - WR - NO

Hybrids

QB - Donovan McNabb - PHI
WR - Wes Welker - NE
WR - Chad Johnson - CIN
RB - Bryan Westbrook - PHI
TE - Greg Olsen - CHI
K/DEF - Indianapolis Colts
MC - DeAngelo Williams - RB - CAR
MC - Clinton Portis - RB - WAS
RS - Shaun
McDonald - WR - DET

Tenacious D

QB - Jay Cutler - DEN
WR - Randy Moss - NE
WR - Roddy White - ATL
RB - Stephen Jackson - STL
TE - Kevin Boss - NYG
K/DEF - Pittsburgh Steelers
MC - Thomas Jones - RB - NYJ
MC - Santana Moss - WR - WAS
RS - Early Doucet - WR - ARI

Beatubad

QB - Peyton Manning - IND
WR - Steve Smith - NYG
WR - Steve Smith - CAR
RB - Laurence Maroney - NE
TE - John Carlson - SEA
K/DEF - Ryan Longwell - MIN
MC - Eddie Royal - WR - DEN
MC - Earnest Graham - RB - TB
RS - Josh Cribbs - WR - CLE


Deion Found Jesus

QB - Tom Brady - NE
WR - Brandon Marshall - DEN
WR - Antonio Bryant - TB
RB - LaDainian Tomlinson - SD
TE - Kellen Winslow - CLE (FA to TB)
K/DEF - Stephen Gostkowski - NE
MC - Brady Quinn - QB - CLE
MC - Reggie Wayne - WR - IND
RS - Chris Perry - WR - CIN

I'm a Texan

QB - Matt Schaub - HOU
WR - Andre Johnson - HOU
WR - Ted Ginn Jr - MIA
RB - Steve Slaton - HOU
TE - Owen Daniels - HOU
K/DEF - Kris Brown - HOU
MC - Ryan Grant - RB - GB
MC - Vince Young - QB - TEN
RS - Kevin Kolb - QB - PHI

I Have a Bush

QB - Drew Brees - NO
WR - Marques Colston - NO
WR - Hines Ward - PIT
RB -
Maurice Jones-Drew - JAX
TE - Jeremy Shockey - NO
K/DEF - Baltimore Ravens
MC - Lance Moore - WR - NO
MC - Willie Parker - RB - PIT
RS - Carnell Williams - RB - TB

The Undisputed

QB - Philip Rivers - SD
WR - Larry Fitzgerald - ARI
WR - Donald Driver - GB
RB - Joseph Addai - IND
TE - Jason Witten - DAL
K/DEF - Dallas Cowboys
MC - Greg Camarillo - WR - MIA
MC - Robbie Gould - K - CHI
RS - Chris Johnson - RB - TEN

Djiboutti Crust

QB - Tony Romo - DAL
WR - Roy Williams - DAL
WR - Dwayne Bowe - KC
RB - Jonathan Stewart - CAR
TE - Dustin Keller - NYJ
K/DEF - Minnesota Vikings
MC - Vincent Jackson - WR - SD
MC - Pierre Thomas - RB - NO
RS - Donnie Avery - WR - STL

First or Last

QB - Matt Ryan - ATL
WR - TJ Houshmandzadeh - CIN (FA to SEA)
WR - Plaxico Burress - NYG
RB - Michael Turner - ATL
TE - Antonio Gates - SD
K/DEF - Jason Elam - ATL
MC - Matt Forte - RB - CHI
MC - Bernard Berrian - WR - MIN
RS - James Hardy - WR - BUF