2009 Week 3 Outlook

Mind you, it has happened before. Teams have lost their first two games of the season and still had success. In fact, in the previous six seasons, two of the eventual champions started out at least 0-2 (Carmen Sutera, 2003 & Drew Brees, 2006). But the fact that it has happened before doesn't make the feat any easier to accomplish.

36 teams have made the playoffs in the league's history. Four of them started out 0-2. Two of those actually lost a third game, and for Joe Harper, it was the last time he lost that season. But let's face it; what happened to Joe in 2006 was a freakish coincidence. His team was clearly dominant, but in those first three games, he just happened to play the ONE team that scored the most points in their given week. No one really believed his team wasn't good, just unlucky. For the four teams yet to win a game through the first two weeks, circumstances have not been so similar.

Still, the Wrong Answer, Beatubad, Texas Thundermonkeys and First or Last franchises can take that little slice of history and use it to obtain whatever kind of hope comes with it. But there's virtually no hope if they can't take a victory in week 3, especially for a league title. TT and FOL will be facing off this week, so we're already assured of seeing at least one winless team by the time Monday Night Football is over.

Week 3 Match-Ups

Djibouti Crust (1-1-0) vs Hybrids (2-0-0)
All-time Regular Season: 3-3-0

• This game could very well be decided by some real-life injury decisions that likely wont be made until the last minute. Felix Jones (Djibouti Crust) could see an expanded role this week if Marion Barber (Texas Thundermonkeys) is held out. Additionally, Bryan Westbrook (Hybrids) is expected to be listed as 'Questionable' on the Eagles' injury report and could be losing quite a bit of playing time in this week's game against the Chiefs.

I Have a Bush (2-0-0) vs Beatubad (0-2-0)
All-time Regular Season: 2-2-0

• This game can comfortably be projected to get this weeks 'Toyota Biggest Fantasy Blowout' award, in favor of I Have a Bush, who also won it last week with a 78.5 point victory over Tenacious D. I Have a Bush has the luxury of being led by Drew Brees and Marques Colston, who have combined to score 191.5 points in the first two weeks alone. Meanwhile, Beatubad looks set have one of the worst seasons in league history, with Laurence Maroney being the best running back on their roster.

Deion Found Jesus (1-1-0) vs The Undisputed (2-0-0)
All-time Regular Season: 4-2-0, DFJ

• The Undisputed were lucky enough to get a record-breaking performance out of second-year running back, Chris Johnson, who managed to shatter RB fantasy records with 83 points in a single week. They are considerably lucky to be undefeated to this point, but still a quality team, reliant on Philip Rivers, Larry Fitzgerald and Chris Johnson to do most of the heavy lifting. Deion Found Jesus is hoping Tom Brady's dismal week two effort will not be repeated this week when the Patriots take on the Atlanta Falcons. They are hurting at running back (Darren Sproles and Michael Bush are starting this week), but you can never count a team out when they have Brady at QB.

I'm a Texan (1-1-0) vs Wrong Answer (0-2-0)
All-time Regular Season: 2-2-0

• I'm a Texan finally saw their mostly-Houston Texan lineup strategy pay off with huge dividends last week as Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels all turned in monster fantasy numbers in week two. The real questions for owner Stephen Dinger is whether his team is going to play like they did in week one or week two. The answer to that question will likely determine the outcome of this game against defending champion Wrong Answer, who are the most probable winless team to end up in the playoffs. Wrong Answer has to face one more week without the contributions of suspended RB Marshawn Lynch, but they won't be looking past I'm a Texan this week. This match-up is particularly intriguing with the frequent back-and-forth banter that these two managers have taken part in against each other in the recent past.

Vince Young (2-0-0) vs Tenacious D (1-1-0)
All-time Regular Season: 3-1-0, VY

• This game is especially intriguing to me, because Tenacious D are clearly trying to find some kind of identity with the players on their roster. Jay Cutler was easily one of the top five fantasy quarterbacks in the offseason until he was traded away to Chicago. Cutler is not going to repeat his superb 2008 season, but if he can increase his production just enough to give consistent quality numbers, Tenacious D might still be a title contender. But his opponent this week, Vince Young, has an absolutely lethal running back tandem (Adrian Peterson, Frank Gore) that makes them nearly impossible to beat every week. The Yahoo! projections have these two teams evenly matched, but Vince Young's questionable receiving corp is really the only factor that could give Tenacious D the edge.

Texas Thundermonkeys (0-2-0) vs First or Last (0-2-0)
All-time Regular Season: 1-0-0, TT

• The Texas Thundermonkeys have made the playoffs more than any other LOTC franchise in history, but that success appears about ready to run dry in 2009. On paper, the Thundermonkeys should be good enough to contend, but they fell short in both of their first two games. Now, it's all or nothing. They need a win to have any real shot at making the playoffs for the sixth time in seven years, and it looks like they're going to have to do it without the legs of Marion Barber. First or Last seemed certain to avoid the last-place 2-11 finish they had in 2008 after making some seemingly great trades at the end of last season, as well as having a solid draft this year. But two weeks into 2009, manager Gavin Espinoza still can't seem to 'win at life'. If Matt Forte can get out of this apparent sophomore slump, First or Last might still be able to salvage their first winning season, but doing so from an 0-3 hole would make the achievement highly unlikely. Forget the playoffs: for the sake of their history, no one is facing more of a must-win situation than First or Last.

LOTC teams to make the playoffs after starting at least 0-2:

- Carmen Sutera, 2003, Phil Massine (No Longer in League)

• Started: 0-2-0
• Finished: 8-5-0
• Final Outcome: 2003 League Champion

- Da Boyz, 2004, David Onyon (Now 'The Undisputed')

• Started: 0-3-0
• Finished: 8-6-0
• Final Outcome: Lost 1st Round to eventual runner-up In Carr We Trust (Now 'I'm a Texan')

- Drew Brees, 2006, Joseph Harper (Now 'I Have a Bush')

• Started: 0-3-0
• Finished: 10-3-0
• Final Outcome: 2006 League Champion

- Vince Young, 2008, Aaron Diehl

• Started 0-2-0
• Finished: 8-5-0
• Final Outcome: Lost 1st Round to eventual runner-up Beatubad

**UPDATE**
As per Aaron's question, there have been a few teams to start 2-0 and miss the playoffs.

In the past six seasons, 19 teams have started 2-0 or better. Of those 19 teams, 15 went on to make the playoffs. The only person still in this league who has missed the playoffs after a 2-0 start is Ben (Beatubad), and he's done it twice. To be fair, the first time it happened was in 2003, which was the only season where we only had four playoff teams.

2003 - Beatubad
 Started: 3-0
 Finished: 7-6, 5th place

2004 - Garden Gnomes (Phil Massine, No Longer in League)
 Started: 2-0
 Finished: 6-8, 10th place

2005 - The Greatest (John Jemison, No Longer in League)
 Started: 2-0
 Finished: 4-9, 9th place

2007 - Beatubad
 Started: 4-0
 Finished: 6-7, 8th place

So now here's the fun stuff. If history is any kind of indicator of odds, you have a 78.9% chance of making the playoffs by starting 2-0. So one of you four teams are probably going to miss out. Starting out 3-0 (12 times in history) gives you an 83.3% chance of making the playoffs, and yet, a 4-0 start (7 times in history) barely improves your odds, at 85.7%.

Only twice has any LOTC team started 5-0 or better. Dinger did it in 2004, with In Carr We Trust. And the best start in league history was 6-0 by David, with The Undisputed in 2005. David finished out that regular season 3-4, but managed to get back on track in time for the playoffs to win the championship. So apparently, a 6-0 start gives you a 100% chance of winning the title.

But if you're Ben Weiss, a 3-0 start apparently gives you a 67% chance of missing the playoffs.